Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

522 
WWUS82 KTBW 091817
RFWTBW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
217 PM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH ERC WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

.Breezy west to northwest winds with low fuel moisture will
create Red Flag conditions for a few hours this afternoon as
relative humidity values drop below 35 percent. .

FLZ162-165-262-265-100000-
/O.EXA.KTBW.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220410T0000Z/
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-
217 PM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND HIGH ERC VALUES...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL has
issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect until 8 PM EDT this
evening. 

* AFFECTED AREA...Coastal Charlotte...Coastal Lee...Inland 
  Charlotte...Inland Lee. 

* WIND...West 15 to 20 mph with gust up to 30 mph.

* HUMIDITY...30 to 35 percent

* ERC...29 to 32

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

FLZ052-056-057-061-100000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220410T0000Z/
Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-
217 PM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND HIGH ERC VALUES...

* AFFECTED AREA...Polk...Hardee...Highlands...DeSoto.

* WIND...West 15 to 20 mph with gust up to 30 mph.

* HUMIDITY...30 to 35 percent

* ERC...29 to 32

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

119 
WWUS82 KTBW 100008
RFWTBW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
808 PM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022

FLZ052-056-057-061-162-165-262-265-100115-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220410T0000Z/
Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-
Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-
808 PM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Humidity values have come back up above critical levels this
evening and with winds slowly diminishing the Red Flag warning 
has been allowed to expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
810 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

.UPDATE...
A fairly quite afternoon and early evening for us in the Sunshine
State. Gusty winds and very low humidity resulted in elevated to
briefly critical fire weather conditions across the area today,
and this will likely repeat through the weekend. However, it'll be
tricky to determine whether or not, cloud coverage and/or expected
sprinkles early on Saturday will help keep humidities from dropping
down to critical levels. Hi-res models continue to push a few
showers early in the morning, but it keeps them mainly along the
coast and north of the I-4 corridor. If this trend continues,
areas in the interior could be the only ones experiencing the
critically dry conditions and headlines would be needed. At this
time though, there continues to be low confidence on this event,
therefore, no headlines will be issued.

No changes were made to the forecast, as it remains on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with breezy to gusty west to northwest winds expected
through the period at terminals. There is a chance for a sprinkle
or two during the early morning hours on Saturday, however, confidence
is too low to be added to the TAFs. Winds should increase throughout
the day and gust to around 30 kts, especially during the
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 155 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022/

DISCUSSION...
A large trough remains aloft over the region this afternoon while at
the surface, a frontal boundary is south of Florida and high
pressure is centered to our west. This overall setup and the tight
pressure gradient has led to a gusty northwesterly wind flow and
this will continue through the rest of the day and into tonight and
Saturday. One other thing of note for tonight into Saturday is a
reinforcing cold front that will push through the peninsula as the
main trough continues to swing eastward. This will likely lead to a
deck of clouds forming off the Gulf and affecting parts of the area
and could even lead to a few sprinkles. Definitely not expecting any
sort of continuous rain, but a few sprinkles here and there are
certainly possible mainly during the morning hours and were included
in the forecast.

For Saturday night into Sunday, the area of high pressure to our
west shifts more overhead, leading to diminishing winds. Sunday will
be sunny and dry and a little warmer than Saturday, but overall
still a beautiful day given the near-normal temperatures and low dew
points. Nothing to complain about.

Surface high pressure shifts eastward into the Atlantic starting
Monday, with a moderating trend quickly getting underway.
Temperatures will increase starting Monday afternoon, and by
Wednesday, will be topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
While the dew points will increase a little bit, upper ridging
will also be building over the area, so conditions will still
remain relatively dry. For the end of the week, another system
approaches the southeast, so we will see an uptick in rain
chances.

MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Gulf waters through
Saturday, with conditions improving some for Sunday. Winds become
more southeast Sunday night into Monday, with periods of 15 to 20
knot winds expected into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Cooler and drier weather is expected for the next few days behind a
passing cold front. For Saturday, relative humidity values are
expected to drop close to critical levels in some locations and it
could be a close call for some inland spots as far as Red Flag
conditions. Coastal areas should see slightly higher relative
humidity values with the winds coming off the water, so not
expecting any issues for these locations. For Sunday, widespread
lower relative humidity values are expected, but winds will have
diminished, so no concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  62  73  55  79 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  63  79  53  83 /   0  10   0   0
GIF  57  72  50  77 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  62  73  52  79 /  10  10   0   0
BKV  51  69  43  76 /  10  10   0   0
SPG  64  71  58  76 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...Delerme
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle
UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...Rude