Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
815 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022

.UPDATE...
Another pleasant evening across the region with comfortable
temperatures and humidity. For rest of tonight we'll see some
high cirrus clouds move across the area with some areas of fog
developing over inland areas toward morning. Then during Wednesday
a breezy southeast to south flow will develop beginning the
gradual increase in low level moisture. However, it will remain
rather comfortable with relative humidity values dropping into the
30s Wednesday afternoon with potential Red Flag conditions for a
few hours away from the immediate coast. Overall the current
forecast looks ok with no changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Temporary
MFVR and IFR visibilities cannot be ruled out late tonight into
early Wednesday morning, but mainly at LAL. Light and variable
winds this evening will become east to southeast around 5 knots
overnight then southeast to south and increase to 15 to 20 knots
with higher gusts late morning Wednesday through Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 243 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022/

DISCUSSION...
A beautiful and quiet weather day across the region as high
pressure remains over the area for at least one more day. The
dry air has caused temperatures to warm up quickly this afternoon
with some of us already getting into the mid to upper 80's with
some spots inland expected to top out around 90 degrees. A strong
cold front will start to push through the southeast tomorrow. The
front won't make it to the west coast of Florida until late in the
day on Thursday, but we will start to feel the effects of it
tomorrow. This is due to the tightening pressure gradient of the
high that is pushing away from us and the strong cold front
pushing in. Winds will be gusting to 20 to 30 mph out of the
southeast to south by the afternoon with stronger winds offshore.
We can expect small craft advisories for everywhere by that time
frame. The big question will be if a Red Flag Warning will be
needed. We have the strong winds and high ERC values, but min RHs
will be a little higher tomorrow.

The front itself will be pushing through West Central Florida
starting in the late afternoon on Thursday with most of the
thunderstorm activity occurring in the evening and overnight
hours. Right now we have a marginal risk of severe weather along
I-4 and north for that time period. The front is expected to
weaken and stall over the area for Friday and into the weekend.
This will continue to produce daily shower and thunderstorm
activity but the severe weather risk at least for right now looks
to be much lower.

High pressure will return for the early part of next week bringing
the warm and dry conditions back to the area.

MARINE...
A strong cold front will start to push through the southeast
tomorrow. This will cause the pressure gradient to tighten and
increase our winds out of the south and southeast. By tomorrow
early afternoon all waterways should be under a small craft
advisory with 20 to 25 kt winds expected with waves as high as 8
ft possible in the offshore waters. Gusty winds are expected to
stick around through at least Thursday evening. After that time a
cold front will push through switching the winds to the northwest
and calming down. However, showers and thunderstorm will be
possible Thursday evening through the weekend as the cold front
stalls across the area.

FIRE WEATHER...
Currently see critical RHs across the area with RHs in the mid
20's. However, winds are low so no Red Flag warning needed
this afternoon. A strong cold front will be heading through the
southeast tomorrow. Ahead of it will be gusty winds and we will
see borderline Red Flag conditions with high winds and ERCs.
However, RHs are looking to stay just above critical levels in
the afternoon. By Thursday evening a strong cold front will push
through that will bring us showers and storms and we will not be
seeing any fire weather concerns for the remainder of the period.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  67  89  72  87 /   0   0   0  30
FMY  64  91  71  90 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  64  90  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
SRQ  63  86  70  85 /   0   0   0  20
BKV  58  90  66  88 /   0   0   0  40
SPG  68  84  72  83 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to
     10 PM EDT Thursday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
     Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood
     FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
PREV DISCUSSION...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...Delerme