Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
142 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022

.DISCUSSION...
A mid-level shortwave remains over Florida this afternoon while a
persistent inverted trough at the surface stays along the east coast
of Florida. Overall, low-level easterly flow continues, with a later
start to showers and thunderstorms both today and tomorrow. Storm
motion is expected to be rather slow again, with isolated flooding
of some roads and low-lying areas likely along with some gusty
winds.

Early next week, a large mid-level ridge over Texas builds eastward
over the region while the surface trough finally washes out as Fiona
makes its way toward the Bahamas. Rain chances remain elevated on
Monday with the continued east flow and plenty of moisture to work
with, but by late Tuesday, low-level winds start to turn more
northeast, with some relatively drier air starting to work its way
over the region. Still expect pretty typical rainfall coverage
through the day for most of the local area, we just might see some
limited activity for our northern zones, depending on how much drier
air can work its way over us.

For Wednesday and Thursday, we should see plenty more drier air and
subsidence and thus much lower rain chances, with the exception of
the southwest Florida region. This pattern really lingers into
Friday and the weekend as well, as the ridge aloft flattens in
response to a trough that will eventually turn Fiona north and out
to sea.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
VCTS is in place for all sites through the rest of the afternoon and
evening, with convection lingering until 02Z or so in some spots.
Light and variable winds are expected tonight into early tomorrow
morning, with the possibility of another round of low clouds in the
MVFR/IFR range.

&&

.MARINE...
East to northeast winds will continue for the next couple of days,
with no headlines expected. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
each day, especially in the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  89  76  89 /  40  30  30  60
FMY  74  90  75  91 /  50  50  30  70
GIF  72  89  73  90 /  50  50  20  70
SRQ  72  87  73  88 /  50  30  30  50
BKV  70  89  71  89 /  30  40  20  60
SPG  75  87  76  88 /  40  20  30  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

05/Carlisle

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
531 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW TAMPA INTERNATIONA 27.97N 82.53W
09/17/2022  M41 MPH          HILLSBOROUGH       FL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KTPA TAMPA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
713 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     WATER SPOUT      8 SW SANIBEL            26.36N 82.19W
09/17/2022                   GMZ856             FL   PUBLIC

            BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED SEVERAL PHOTOS FROM
            PUBLIC OF WATERSPOUT OFFSHORE SANIBEL
            ISLAND.

&&

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
721 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022

FLZ255-260-172345-
Inland Manatee FL-Inland Sarasota FL-
721 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Manatee
and north central Sarasota Counties through 745 PM EDT...

At 720 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Myakka City, or 17 miles east of Sarasota, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and funnel clouds.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hidden River and Fruitville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of brief funnel clouds.
These funnel clouds can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts
over 50 mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report
your sighting to the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2747 8232 2742 8217 2723 8219 2732 8245
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 025DEG 9KT 2740 8227

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TBW