Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
222 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022

Weak upper-level ridging to the east continues for today, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing across
the FL peninsula in response to the 2+ inch PW values and ample
instability from daytime heating. Atmospheric conditions continue to
support heavy rainfall in particular, along with frequent lightning
and some gustier winds. However, the severe threat remains low with
a warm and saturated column and weak lapse rates in response.

A slightly stronger wind flow tomorrow may delay convective
initiation slightly, but not really expecting a significant
pattern deviation overall for tomorrow. In fact, not really
expecting a significant pattern deviation at all until late in
the week. By that point, the ridge axis should shift a little
farther east. In response, low-level flow is likely to become more
WSW. This may alter convective timing slightly, with convection
developing over the Gulf in the overnight hours and then moving
onshore during the morning before continuing to meander eastward.
That is what the pattern suggests right now, but the forecast is
pretty conservative still at this point. Either way, at least
scattered storms should still be expected.

So overall, a very typical July summertime pattern continues. Warm,
muggy, and mostly sunny starts should give way to scattered to
numerous storms in the afternoon and evening. Highs run around
normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022

Thunderstorms have begun to develop in the vicinity of terminals,
with some locations already seeing (or are very likely to see) TEMPO
impacts associated with convection here in the short-term. One these
storms pass coastal terminals, conditions should quiet for the rest
of the day, with everyone likely clearing out by early evening.
However, a stray storm could drift back towards coastal sites; the
probability is too low for continued VCTS mention. A similar pattern
repeats again for tomorrow, although the timing might be just a
little later.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022

Scattered storms continue across coastal waters with locally
hazardous winds and seas possible in the vicinity. Otherwise, winds
remain below 15 knots and seas are generally expected to be 2 feet
or less, but may be more in the 3 foot range in areas that
experience winds closer to 15 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022

Scattered to numerous storms continue through the week with ample
moisture and instability. Fire weather concerns are low through the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  93  79 /  70  30  70  30
FMY  93  76  94  77 /  60  40  50  20
GIF  92  75  94  76 /  80  40  70  20
SRQ  90  76  92  77 /  60  30  60  30
BKV  91  72  93  73 /  70  30  70  30
SPG  89  78  90  79 /  60  30  70  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

Flannery