Wind Chill Advisory 2, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1250 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

Northeasterly wedge being held in place by developing low pressure
along the NE Florida coast this evening. The low clouds will stick
around through the night, with fog and drizzle expanding with time
as well. Not expecting much in the way of measurable precip,
outside of possibly the far northeastern portion of the CWA, so
have replaced most PoPs with drizzle for the overnight hours.
Otherwise, no changes needed to temperature or wind grids for
tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

A stationary front will remain south of the area through
Thursday, with northeast low-level flow locked in place. This will
continue the dreary pattern of overcast stratus and occasional
showers. The silver lining is temps will moderate several degrees
on Thu, with highs in the mid-60s, which is closer to average,
after overnight lows in the 40s. Patchy fog is likely across much
of the tri-state area tonight and Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 332 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

IT'S SHOW TIME!!!

We have been discussing this strong arctic cold front for the
past several days and it will now be on our doorstep. Ahead of the
front, there may be some lingering light scattered showers. That
should clear out before the frontal passage. Based on recent model
guidance, the front should enter our region from the northwest
around midnight Friday morning. Behind the front, temperatures
will drop rapidly with a quick increase in the winds. Expect the
warmest temperatures on Friday to be during the early morning
hours before the front arrives. The front will continue sweep
through to the southeast for the rest of the morning. Winds will
quickly shift from westerly to northwesterly and gusting to 25mph,
and possibly up to 35 mph.

Temperatures on Friday will be in the low to mid 30s for our SE
AL and SW GA counties by daybreak, and in the low to mid 40s in
the FL Big Bend. The extreme SE Big Bend may still be in the low
50s at daybreak. Our Alabama and SE GA counties will be hovering
around freezing for most of the day on Friday, while the rest of
us will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. The SE Big Bend will
likely remain in the upper 40s through the day. Don't forget about
the wind chills! The wind chills on Friday afternoon will be in
the teens for SE AL, and low 20s in Georgia. The FL Panhandle can
expect wind chills ranging from the low to mid 20s. The SE Big
Bend will follow suite with wind chills in the 20s during the
overnight hours into Saturday.

Hazards in play for Friday are currently a Hard Freeze Watch in
our AL counties for Friday morning, given that temperatures around
daybreak are forecasted to be around 23-25F for Coffee, Dale, and
northern Geneva counties (briefly) before "warming up" to the
mid- upper 20s and into the low 30s later in the afternoon. The
entire Tri-State region is be under a Hard Freeze Watch for Friday
night into Saturday morning because forecast Lows are in upper
teens to low 20s. A wind chill advisory will likely be put in
place for the entire CWA because we are expected to have wind
chills fall into the single digits and low teens for overnight
Friday into Saturday morning.

For our coastal regions, the strong winds will also result in
very dangerous beach conditions and possible minor coastal
flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

The main story for the long term will be the Cold Temperatures
and the Very Cold Wind Chills. The cold front has moved through
the region and the winds will have calmed down over land. Partly
cloudy to mostly clear skies for the Holiday Weekend will actually
lead to better radiational cooling, which could bring
temperatures down a couple more degrees during the overnight hours
on Saturday into Sunday morning. Highs for the weekend will rise
into the low to mid 30s on Saturday and up to the mid 40s for
Christmas Day. Although, the overnight lows will still be bitterly
cold with temps in the low 20s and wind chills in the teens.
Temperatures will begin to improve by Monday, with highs in the
mid to upper 40s and overnight lows in the upper 20s/low 30s.
There will be a slow warmup through the week but, it looks like
Tuesday morning will be our last widespread freeze for this event
with highs back in the low 50s.

Rain chances somewhat return for next week as a shortwave trough
looks to approach the SE US, yet PoPs remain less than 20 percent
at the moment. Given that the dry air mass will already be in
place, the trough won't budge our pattern much. That's what will
keep precip chances relatively low, with higher chances well
offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

High cloud tonight limits our sight on the widespread stratus
blanketing the region. Most TAF sites are reporting IFR to LIFR
cigs while vsby ranges from VFR along the coast to IFR inland.
This will likely continue through the overnight hours, with vsby
improving around and after sunrise. We'll then await the arrival
of an Arctic front. This should help lift clouds across the region
but it may not occur until later in the current TAF cycle. Until
then, expect conditions to bounce between IFR and MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

All eyes now turn toward the next cold front poised to move
across the marine area Thursday night into Friday. Winds will
become southerly Thursday afternoon and increase quickly Thursday
night. Gale conditions are likely across the waters late Thursday
night into Friday morning with gusts of 40 to 45 knots. Seas will
also build to 7 to 10 feet offshore. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front
Thursday and Thursday night. Winds will slowly subside to below
advisory levels by Saturday night with seas dropping back to 2 to
4 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

Slight rain chances through Thursday Night, when a strong cold
frontal passage ushers in bitterly cold air on Friday and
Saturday. MinRH will plunge to between 25% and 30% and possibly
lower Fri and Sat afternoons. In addition, 20 ft winds will be
around 15 to 20 mph Fri afternoon, so there could be elevated fire
weather concerns. Low dispersions expected on Thursday across the
tri-state. On Friday, there is the potential for high
dispersions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 332 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

With no significant precipitation expected over the next several
days there is no inland flood threat.

However, focus will shift to the potential for coastal flooding
starting late Thursday afternoon and continuing into Friday
afternoon. Strong onshore winds will develop ahead of the
approaching arctic cold front on Thursday afternoon and begin to
increase water levels initially along the Florida Panhandle and
later into Apalachee Bay. With the models suggesting peak surges
will better align with the times of high tide Thursday evening in
the Panhandle and early Friday morning, confidence is high enough
to issue a coastal flood advisory for our entire coastline. Water
levels of 1.5 to 2.5 ft MHHW are expected in this event. For
timing, did show the advisory extending beyond 12z Friday for
Taylor and Dixie County as winds are not expected to shift to a
parallel direction relative to the coastline until after the
Friday afternoon high tide, so for these counties the advisory
will end at 21z Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   66  43  45  21 /  20  20   0   0
Panama City   67  40  42  22 /  20  20   0   0
Dothan        62  30  34  17 /  10  20   0   0
Albany        61  37  38  18 /  20  10   0   0
Valdosta      64  46  47  20 /  20  10   0   0
Cross City    69  54  55  22 /  30  20   0   0
Apalachicola  67  47  49  23 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hard Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Friday for FLZ108-112-114.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday
     for FLZ115-118-127.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday
     for FLZ128-134.

GA...Hard Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for
     GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Hard Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     ALZ065-066-068.

     Hard Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for
     ALZ065>069.

GM...Gale Watch from this evening through late Friday night for
     GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Godsey