Wind Chill Advisory 1, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1244 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

.AVIATION...

[Through 06z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail with
ceilings of 4000-5000 ft developing this morning. For later this
afternoon into the overnight hours, northwest winds will
strengthen behind a developing area of low pressure along the
east coast with gusts near 25 knots expected for most areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [801 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Friday]...

Upper level trough axis that is stretched across the Plains and
into Colorado this afternoon will swing southward and strengthen
as it pushes into the southeast Friday afternoon. As this occurs,
a weak wave off the Florida coast will lift northeast and
strengthen along the Georgia and Carolina coasts. With this
pattern, we could see a few showers across the southeast Big Bend,
but rain chances will be limited as the upper level trough swings
into the region. Expect lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s tonight
with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s tomorrow, which is a touch
cooler high temperature wise compared to today. Much cooler
temperatures will be ushered in for the short term.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Night Through Saturday Night]...

An upper level Low north of us will be traversing east. The
associated cold front will be pushing through our service area
Friday night into Saturday. There may be a few showers in the SE
Big Bend for the start of the term, ahead of the cold front.
Although, the big story will be the drop in temperatures as a
result of the front. Behind the front, breezy winds and arctic air
will settle over the Tri-State region. We expect temperatures to
fall to the mid to upper 20s Saturday morning. But with the
northwest winds of 10-15 mph and occasionally gusting up to 25
mph, we will have apparent (feels-like) temperatures in the upper
teens! Temperatures will warm in the afternoon to the mid 40s yet,
the wind will still play a factor with the apparent temperatures
in the upper 30s. Temperatures will be even colder for Saturday
night into Sunday with lows in the low to mid 20s. The winds will
be calmer for Saturday night but, still enough for a wind chill in
the low 20s and upper teens.

Good news, the bitter cold won't stay for much longer because
temperatures are expected to rise to the mid 50s Sunday afternoon.
It'll be chilly Sunday night but, most areas are expected to
remain above freezing with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s,
and low 40s along the coast.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Monday will be the start of a gradual warmup with highs in the
low to mid 60s and we could see the low 70s by the end of the term
on Thursday. Overnight lows will start in the 40s Monday night
but, will warm to the 50s by Tuesday and will warm to the upper
50s by Wednesday night. Rain chances return Tuesday afternoon as
an upper level ridge that was keeping us warm and dry will move
east into the Atlantic. An upper level shortwave trough will be
bringing the rain into our region and PoPs will be increasing
through the week. With this system, showers and thunderstorms are
expected with PoPs ranging from 40-60 percent by midweek. Models
are showing this system to be potentially strong with decent shear
and CAPE. We will continue to monitor for any severe threats.

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will briefly remain just below cautionary levels
before another low pressure system approaches north of the area on
Friday, bringing increased winds and seas again. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are expected to begin Friday afternoon. Gale
conditions are forecast to begin Friday night through Saturday. A
Gale Watch is in effect from Friday evening through Saturday
afternoon.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will move through the region tomorrow ushering much
drier and cooler air into the region for Saturday. This will drop
RH values into the 20 percent range. In addition, stronger winds
are expected across the area beginning tomorrow afternoon and
persisting into Saturday. We will need to continue to monitor
Saturday closely in terms of the fire weather hazards.

.HYDROLOGY...

There are no flooding concerns through the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   61  29  44  24  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   60  31  45  31  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        55  25  41  24  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        57  27  41  23  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      58  28  43  23  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  32  45  25  51 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  61  31  44  30  52 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Gale Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon to
     7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM...Montgomery
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery