Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
306 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...

Surface high pressure across southern Illinois and the central
Mississippi river basin is expected to progress eastward tonight
and during the day tomorrow towards the northeast. This will
start to push the dry air that is entering the northwest portion
of the forecast today back north as easterly flow starts to
develop areawide during the day on Thursday. As the dry air exits
the region, 1.8 to 2 inch PWATs are expected to overtake the
region, which will lead to increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the tri-state area on Thursday. These showers
and storms will also be supported synoptically by an upper level
trough that will provide some forcing for ascent, as well as the
a weak vorticity streamer across the mid levels that is the
remnants of the dry front that moved through the region on
Wednesday. Overall, Thursdays storms will have the potential to
produce strong gusty winds as DCAPE values are forecast to be
above 1000 J/Kg. There will also be the potential for localized
flash flooding with PWAT values surging to near 2 inches areawide.
Overall, high temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low
90s, and low temperatures tonight will fall into the low to mid
70s areawide.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]...

A fairly wet pattern is expected to continue into the short term
period with plentiful moisture return to the area. A weak boundary
will likely remain stalled over or just north of the area and may
provide a focusing mechanism for periods of showers and
thunderstorms. A trough is forecast to push slowly into the SE CONUS
on Friday before weakening a bit Saturday. While the trough
should remain northwest of our area, it may provide enough lift to
promote more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the
region. Given the light steering flow forecast and deep moisture
overhead, storms that do develop will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall.

With high rain chances and cloud cover, high temperatures are
forecast in the mid 80s to near 90 with low temperatures in the low
to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

On Saturday the weakening trough is still forecast to be
positioned over the eastern CONUS although retreating to the
northeast as mid level high pressure sets up over Florida. This
high pressure will remain in place through the rest of the long
term period, helping to dampen the PoPs a little bit. Deep layer
moisture will remain over the area however along with a stalled
boundary nearby. Therefore although PoPs will come down a bit,
scattered to sometimes widespread showers and thunderstorms are
still forecast through the rest of the period with locally heavy
rainfall possible. High temperatures are forecast in the mid/upper
80s to low 90s each day with low temperatures in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals for the
remainder of the day outside of shower and thunderstorm activity.
MVFR Visibilities and CIGs look to develop at VLD towards the
early morning hours on Thursday; however, all other terminals are
expected to remain at VFR flight levels. Tomorrow will bring
another chance for widespread shower and thunderstorms to the
area.
&&

.MARINE...

A weak trough from the Central Gulf to the Northeast Gulf will
linger through Friday morning, bringing light and sometimes
variable winds at around 5 to 10 knots. High pressure will
strengthen along the Carolina and Georgia coasts later Friday
through the weekend, with increasing easterly winds over the
northeast Gulf to around 10 to 15 knots expected starting
Saturday. Easterly winds will tend to peak in strength during the
late night and morning hours, with lulls in the afternoon hours.
Seas are expected to increase as the winds pick up, with 2 to 3
foot swells developing by Saturday likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

By Thursday, moisture is expected to overspread the western portion
of the forecast area that has been dry the last couple of days, which
will keep any fire weather concerns low for the whole region. There will
be scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region on Thursday
as deep tropical moisture overtakes the region. Dispersions will remain
low for Thursday, but will predominantly remain above 20 areawide, therefore,
it did not prompt a headline for tomorrow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

All rivers are within their banks right now. However, the
Withlacoochee River is running high. The crest of a broad wave of
water is currently moving downstream near Valdosta and into the
lower reach of the river, but the river will remain below flood
stage.

No riverine flooding is expected for the next 7 days. Over the
last 2 days, fewer and fewer models have been showing enough rain
to produce minor flooding. The chances of minor flooding from the
Ochlockonee basin eastward were already low, and the chances
have just about dried up.

The possibility of isolated flash flooding will continue in the
core of torrential rainfall beneath slow-moving or stationary
thunderstorms each day for at least the next several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  90  73  89  72 /  40  60  50  80  40
Panama City   76  89  75  89  74 /  30  40  60  80  50
Dothan        73  90  72  87  72 /  30  50  40  80  40
Albany        74  90  73  87  72 /  30  60  40  70  40
Valdosta      73  88  72  89  72 /  40  70  40  80  30
Cross City    74  89  72  90  72 /  50  60  50  80  40
Apalachicola  76  87  75  87  75 /  50  50  60  70  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Bunker/Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Haner/Merrifield

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
416 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

FLZ016-017-312045-
Gadsden FL-Leon FL-
416 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Gadsden
and central Leon Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 416 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Havana to near Midway.
These storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tallahassee, Midway, Florida A And M, Tallahassee Comm College,
Florida State University, Doak Campbell Stadium, Lake Bradford, Macon
Community Park, Brown House, Gaither Community Center, Tallahassee
Memorial Hosp, Scotland, Killearn Estates, Shady Rest, Lake Ella,
Tallahassee Mall, Tallahassee Regional A/P, State Capital Complex,
Governors Square Mall and Forest Meadows Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3050 8458 3059 8450 3062 8424 3054 8428
      3048 8414 3030 8449 3030 8451
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 348DEG 4KT 3055 8435 3048 8452

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
421 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

GAZ148-160-161-312100-
Berrien GA-Lanier GA-Lowndes GA-
421 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Berrien, central Lanier and northeastern Lowndes Counties through 500
PM EDT...

At 421 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Moody Air Force Base, or near Lakeland, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lakeland, Valdosta, Ray City, Moody Air Force Base, Naylor, Barretts
and Stockton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3084 8325 3110 8326 3109 8313 3092 8297
      3090 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 320DEG 8KT 3100 8317

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

72-BUNKER