Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
412 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday]...

Active afternoon of convection, especially over the Florida
Panhandle. With WNW flow this afternoon, expect storms to gradually
shift eastward with time and spread into Southeast Alabama,
Southwestern Georgia, and eventually into the Florida Big Bend. So
far, storms haven't been producing much in the way of wind gusts,
but due to storm motions generally less than 10 mph, locally heavy
rainfall has been occurring, with the Panama City Airport reporting
1.5 inches of rain in 30 minutes, ending at 18z.

Throughout the evening, expect storms to slowly diminish with
generally tranquil conditions after 06z across the region. The
pattern overnight will support a redevelopment of storms over the
coastal waters, especially offshore of the Florida Panhandle, and
these storms will be near the coast around daybreak on Wednesday.

For Wednesday, expect storms to once again get an early start and
spread inland throughout the day. Highest rain chances will be along
the I-10 corridor and southward. With the earlier start to
convection, expect high temperatures to be limited to only the lower
90s.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night]...

Through the short term we'll see relatively drier air being advected
in from the east throughout Thursday. High PWATs will move westward,
putting our western half under another round of scattered showers
and thunderstorms, with decreasing chances along our eastern half as
this relatively drier air moves in. Instability is expected to be
about the same across the CWA, thus any thunderstorms that do manage
to form along the eastern half may come with some gusty winds as
relatively drier air tends to correlate with higher DCAPE, i.e.
downburst potential. Otherwise, expect highs generally in the low
90s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

On Friday we'll begin a slight pattern change which will bring
with it a moist weekend. Easterly flow begins early this weekend,
combining with the sea breeze to increase PoPs along the eastern
border of our forecast area, impacting the Florida Big Bend.
Higher PoPs then shift to the western portion of our forecast area
as forcing from an easterly wave pushes convection and
precipitation from east to west. PoP values range from 40-60%
throughout the weekend with the highest values seen in the
panhandle and SE AL. This wet weekend will linger into the
beginning of the week with increased rain chances remaining on
Monday before decreasing slightly on Tuesday. The end of the
weekend and start of the following work week will see PWAT values
greater than 2 inches through most of our forecast area. Heavy
rainfall could be possible throughout the weekend. Seasonal highs
in the mid 90s are expected accompanied by lows in the mid 70s
throughout the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

VFR conditions currently prevail, but expect SCT/NMRS TSRA to
develop this afternoon affecting most terminals. These storms will
produce MVFR with ocnl IFR conditions. Expect TSRA to largely
dissipate over land after 02z Wednesday. Additional TSRA
development is likely offshore of the Fla Panhandle, with storms
potentially affecting ECP after 10z Wednesday. Storm development
inland on Wednesday should be after 18z, beyond the current TAF
cycle.

&&

.MARINE...

Increased rain chances are back tomorrow, with a brief lowering of
rain chances heading into the weekend. As an upper level disturbance
slides in from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico late in the
weekend into early next week, increased rain chances will return.
Southwest to west winds will become more southeasterly beginning on
Thursday with speeds mainly 10 knots or less and seas of 1-2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm conditions with scattered thunderstorms are expected for the
next several days. While rain chances will be somewhat lower on
Thursday and Friday, a return of moist southeasterly flow, will
bring increased rain chances through the weekend and into early next
week. The humid conditions will prevent relative humidity values
from reaching critical levels, thus red flag conditions are not
expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

No areal or river flooding is expected for the next 7 days. However,
thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours
which can lead to short-lived drainage issues.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  92  73  91  73 /  20  70  30  60  20
Panama City   77  90  76  89  76 /  30  60  20  60  20
Dothan        73  91  72  91  72 /  20  60  20  60  10
Albany        74  93  73  92  73 /  10  60  20  50  10
Valdosta      73  93  72  92  72 /  20  70  30  40  10
Cross City    75  92  73  92  73 /  30  80  40  40  20
Apalachicola  76  89  76  88  77 /  30  60  30  60  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM...Darish
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

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