Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
301 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]...

Seabreeze convection is ongoing through the Florida Big Bend
westward towards southeast Alabama. DCAPE values are around
800-1000 J/kg and have seen a few weak downbursts and gusty winds
along the seabreeze and outflow boundaries. Storms will be
monitored through the afternoon for strong and gusty winds but
severe storms is not anticipated. Additional development will
occur into southern Georgia but coverage won't be as great as
points southward owing to greater influence of high pressure and
subsidence.

Sunday is basically set up the same as today, although there may
be a few more storms along the I75 corridor and into southeast
Alabama with development moving southward from central
Alabama/Georgia. Skewed the highest pops tomorrow in these areas.
High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s and feels
like temperatures into the low to perhaps mid 100s.

.SHORT & LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]...

Ensemble models agree that subtropical ridging will dominate
through the long term, which will mostly supress
shower/thunderstorm development outside of sea breeze convection,
which is typical for summer. Afternoon PoPs average around 30-50
percent each day, with temperatures in the low/mid 90s. Yet, the
heat indices will increase to about 106 degrees by midweek.
Overnight lows will range in the low/mid 70s through the long
term. So, daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms and otherwise
muggy conditions. Thunderstorms can produce heavy rainfall and
gusty winds, with frequent lightning.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

Seabreeze convection has developed in the Florida panhandle and
near the Big Bend coast with additional isolated development
expected into the afternoon hours. ECP may be done with convection
for now since the seabreeze passed by. TLH and DHN are next in
line with tempo groups through mid afternoon. A little less
confidence at ABY/VLD so just have VCTS mentioned. VFR overnight
and another round of convection tomorrow. This area may favor more
of our eastern half aerodromes towards late morning.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure takes control of the forecast which will lead to
favorable boating conditions through Wednesday. Seas will
generally be at 1 to 2 feet, while light to gentle breezes
prevail. Daily showers and thunderstorms do remain in the
forecast, which may bring periods of locally higher winds and
seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

We will remain in this persistent weather pattern for the next
few days. Meaning, scattered late morning through early evening
showers and thunderstorms. Transport winds will remain light owing
to high pressure so dispersion values will remain on the low
side. No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

High pressure takes control of the forecast which will act as a
suppressor for widespread shower and thunderstorm development.
This puts us back towards our typical, summer like weather with
shower and thunderstorm development likely initiating along
seabreezes or boundaries. Ensemble guidance shows PW values near
1.75" so heavy rain cannot be ruled out. Should a stronger shower
or thunderstorm develop, we may see localized flooding issues for
urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas. Outside of that, there
are no flooding concerns.

River flooding is not expected; however, the Ochlocknee near
Havana remains in Action Stage and should hold through tonight and
slowly recede below Action Stage on Sunday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  91  74  92  73 /  20  60  20  50  10
Panama City   76  89  76  89  76 /  20  50  10  50  10
Dothan        73  91  73  90  73 /  20  50  20  50  10
Albany        74  92  73  92  73 /  20  50  20  50  10
Valdosta      72  91  72  92  73 /  40  60  20  40  10
Cross City    73  90  72  92  73 /  40  60  20  50  10
Apalachicola  77  88  77  88  77 /  20  50  20  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for South
     Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM...Montgomery
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery

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