Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
336 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]...

Shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon will persist into
tonight as a weak front pushes across the region. A strong storm
cannot be ruled out but the chances for this have lessened some from
earlier in the day and the CWA is no longer in the marginal risk.

The tropical system across the southern Gulf will move northeast
across the Florida Peninsula tomorrow and as this occurs, our low
level winds will become more easterly. In this pattern, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow with the
better chances across the Big Bend and southwest/central Georgia,
closer to the better moisture. In addition to shifting the pattern
in place across the region, the tropical system will also continue
to bring a high risk of rip currents through the weekend. Expect
lows tonight around 70 with highs tomorrow in the lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Sunday Night]...

Shower activity will stick around through the rest of the weekend
as northeast flow keeps the seabreeze pinned to the coastline.
However, with drier air aloft, activity will mostly be isolated
and the better prospects will likely be on the seabreeze where
there will be increased low level convergence. Slightly breezy
conditions are possible across inland areas as an elevated
pressure gradient from the leftovers of Potential Tropical
Cyclone remains in place.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Weak upper level trough remains in place Monday and Tuesday across
the area with lighter winds expected at the surface. Shower and
storm coverage will remain isolated to scattered each afternoon in
the absence of any significant moisture across the area. Towards
the middle of the week, temperatures will warm as upper level
ridging begins to move in. High temperatures by Wednesday and
Thursday could approach the mid to upper 90s. With the upper level
ridge in place and drier air aloft, little to no rain is
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible around the TAF
sites this afternoon into this evening. While chances do lessen some
overnight, showers and an isolated thunderstorm will still remain
possible as a weak front traverses the region. Outside of this,
there are low end chances for MVFR fog in the morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Elevated seas are expected through the weekend as swells from
Potential Tropical Cyclone One move north into our marine waters.
Northeast winds around 10 to 15 knots are expected as well through
the weekend. Conditions improve at the beginning of next week with
lower seas and lighter winds expected across the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The tropical system across the southern Gulf will remain well south
of the area as it tracks across the FL Peninsula tomorrow. No
significant impacts are expected to the region from this. RH values
will remain in the 40-50% range the next few days with 20 foot winds
generally on the lighter side. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible each day with the chances for wetting
rain trending drier Sunday into early next week. Patchy fog will be
possible tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Less than an inch of rainfall is expected through the upcoming
week. Therefore there are no hydrology concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   70  92  69  91  70 /  30  40  10  20  10
Panama City   71  89  71  89  72 /  10  20  10  20  10
Dothan        68  89  68  89  68 /  30  20   0  10  10
Albany        70  90  69  90  69 /  40  30  10  10   0
Valdosta      69  91  68  90  68 /  40  40  10  20  10
Cross City    69  90  69  91  69 /  40  40  20  20  10
Apalachicola  71  88  72  87  73 /  20  40  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM...Dobbs
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

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