Special Marine Warning 521, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
731 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

Made a few tweaks to the rain chances through the overnight hours
and winds. Watching a line of showers and thunderstorms moving
through southern Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Severe weather
threats have not changed and still expecting a chance for damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes with the greater threat in our
coastal panhandle counties.

Based on the updates to winds, expanded the small craft advisory
eastward to include the nearshore waters from Apalachicola to the
Ochlocknee river and offshore waters from Apalachicola to Suwanee
river out 20 to 60 nautical miles through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

The main concern will be with severe thunderstorms from late
evening through the overnight hours. SPC has upgraded our coastal
Panhandle counties to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
weather.

A potent upper low is spinning over north- central Texas. A large
area of rain with embedded strong to severe thunderstorms is
currently located over southeast Louisiana, in advance of a front
further west over southwest LA. The rain and embedded storms will
move east this evening, reaching our westernmost counties of
Walton, Geneva, and Coffee late this evening. Southerly flow
coming up the gut of the warm Gulf Loop Current will aid in weak
destabilization, and a warm front currently just offshore will
move inland this evening. Low-level wind shear will be maximized
along and just south of the warm front. This is where the threat
for a tornado or two will be maximized, and it corresponds with
the upgraded Slight Risk area. Otherwise, damaging thunderstorm
wind gusts will be the other main concern.

Hefty rainfall rates and local rainfall amounts in excess of 2
inches could lead to localized and short-lived runoff issues, but
dry weather this fall precludes concern for anything worse.

As the line of storms moves east overnight, the better upper
dynamics will exit northeast, and the SE-S winds feeding into the
line will not have as much fetch across the warm waters south of
the Emerald Coast. As the line moves into a less unstable
environment, the severe thunderstorm threat will diminish as they
get east of Albany and Tallahassee.

By late Sunday morning, rapid clearing will arrive from west to
east. The incoming air mass will be coming in from Texas.
Therefore, the weather behind Sunday mornings front will mainly be
drier, and not necessarily colder. The drier air mass will
actually boost daytime temperatures on Sunday afternoon, before a
cooler night on Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 334 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

The upper level low that brought us the cold front will have
lifted to the northeast, allowing for calm weather for Monday.
Conditions will be dry with light westerly winds. Temperatures
will be cool in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s for the High with
morning lows in the upper 40s to the northwest and low 50s to the
southeast as well as along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 334 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

Prior to our next system, we can expect upper level ridging to
build in over the Southeast US that should keep us dry with mostly
clear skies and warming temperatures in the mid 70s for Tuesday.
Wednesday will be a little warmer but the next cold front will be
approaching so the cloud cover will begin to increase through the
day. For the first half of the long term will have morning lows in
the low 50s warming to the low 60s for Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will approach the Tri-State region by Wednesday
evening and is expected to clear through by Thursday morning.
After the frontal passage, mid and upper level ridging will build
in, keeping us dry for the remainder of the long term. Just for
Thursday, temps will start in the low to mid 40s and warm to the
low 60s. Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be more seasonal
in the upper 60s/ low 70s with morning lows in the low to mid
50s.

Wednesday's system looks to be a high shear/low CAPE environment.
Also with the potential to have heavy rainfall which could lead
to localized urban or flash flooding in some regions with poor
drainage. The severe risk is not zero but it is too soon to
categorize as of yet. We will continue to monitor as the system
approaches next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

A mix of MVFR and below flight conditions are ongoing at the
terminals this afternoon and watching a line of showers and storms
moving through southern Mississippi at the moment. This line will
make it into our western sites (ECP/DHN) after midnight then TLH
and ABY in the pre dawn hours. The line will be weakening as it
approaches TLH/ABY/VLD with the environment not as conducive with
eastern extent. There is an associated cold front supporting the
storms, and behind the passage, expect a wind shift to the
northwest with gusty winds through the day Sunday. Flight
conditions will gradually improve behind the frontal passage with
a return to VFR conditions few hours after passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

A cold front will sweep eastward across the waters late tonight
into Sunday morning, preceded by strong south to southwest
breezes, then followed by a period of fresh to possibly strong
westerly breezes. High pressure will move across the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast States from Sunday afternoon
through Monday, causing winds to clock around through the north
and northeast. Southerly breezes will freshen mid-week in advance
of the next front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

A widespread wetting rain is expected tonight and Sunday morning.
A drier and gusty west wind will kick in on Sunday, accompanied
by clearing skies and improved dispersion. Winds will weaken on
Monday, then become southeasterly on Tuesday. Humidity will start
to creep up on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 334 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

Some beneficial rainfall is expected for western portions of the
area tonight through Sunday morning. Amounts of 1-1.25 inches are
expected across portions of southeast Alabama and the Florida
panhandle. A few pockets of heavier amounts are possible. Farther
east, areas of southwest Georgia and the Florida big bend will see
lesser amounts, generally less than an inch, although locally
heavier amounts could occur. Another system may affect the area by
mid-week. Flooding is not currently expected given the recent dry
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  76  50 /  70  90   0   0
Panama City   68  72  56 / 100  70   0   0
Dothan        63  69  48 / 100  50   0   0
Albany        64  72  48 /  90  90   0   0
Valdosta      65  76  49 /  40  80   0   0
Cross City    68  77  52 /  10  70   0   0
Apalachicola  69  73  56 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for GMZ750-752-755-
     770-772-775.

&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery