Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
236 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Monday]...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected again today through tonight
ahead of a cold front that will begin to pass through the CWA late
tonight into Monday morning. Some of these storms may be strong to
Marginally (1 of 5) severe with the main threats being strong wind
gusts and some hail. Most of the activity is expected to be along
and north of I-10 later this afternoon. PoPs this afternoon and
evening will range from around 45% along I-10 to nearly 60-70% in
our SE AL counties and central GA counties. As the cold front
approaches, our rain chances increase to about 80% for the GA
counties and about 60% PoPs along I-10, with lesser chances in the
SE Big Bend. Rain chances linger Monday morning but, a quick moving
shortwave, along with the cold front will push out any remaining
rain through the day, leading to clearing skies by Monday evening.
Following the frontal passage, winds will begin to pick up from the
northwest at around 10-15mph.

Temperatures tonight will cool to the mid 60s and is expected to
warm to the upper 70s to low 80s for the High on Monday.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Tuesday Night]...

The southeast US will remain in west to northwest upper flow with
ridging upstream and remaining under the influence of the east
coast trough. Surface high pressure will move from the upper
Midwest to the central Appalachians, keeping a cool northerly
component to the surface winds. Cold front will be well east with
a cool and dry airmass filtering in from the north. Highs will be
in the 70s Tuesday with lows in the upper 40s to 50s, which will
be short lived heading into the long term.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Another cold front makes a run at the southeast US Wednesday into
Thursday but stalls and moves up and over strengthening upper
ridging setting up over the south and Gulf of Mexico. Easterly
surface flow around high pressure to the north becomes
southeasterly towards the weekend which will help increase
moisture advection off the Gulf. As the upper ridge sets up and
thickness values increase, highs reaching 90 is a distinct
possibility this weekend with little chances for rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected for later this
afternoon through the overnight hours. Most of the activity is
expected to affect terminals north of I-10. Some storms will have
the potential to bring gusty winds and some hail. Vsbys will
likely be reduced at some sites in the heavier storms. IFR
conditions will be possible at most sites during the predawn hours
but, will begin to return to VFR after daybreak Monday morning,
with the winds shifting to the northwest by the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front will move across the Gulf Waters Monday bringing with
it a chance for thunderstorms and stronger winds and seas. Exercise
caution is expected in waters west of Mexico Beach Monday afternoon
then advisory conditions through all waters Monday night and early
Tuesday. Winds and seas will remain elevated through the end of
the work week as high pressure creates a strong pressure gradient
over the northeast Gulf. Caution to advisory conditions can be
expected through Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms look to be contained mainly along and
north of I-10 today through tonight. Tonight, precip chances become
more widespread, though rainfall totals remain light (generally
around 0.5" or less). Tomorrow, dispersion values are forecast to be
high and generally above 75 for much of the afternoon. Transwinds
will increase from the northwest tomorrow afternoon to 15-20kts.
Precip chances look to decrease rapidly through the morning and into
the afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

An inch or less of rainfall is expected through Monday, the
heavier side of this range will fall in southeast Alabama and
southern Georgia, before the cold front swings through taking the
rain chances with it. There is a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall today in those same areas so isolated higher amounts
cannot be ruled out. Beyond Monday, no meaningful rainfall is
expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   66  83  53  76  49 /  50  40   0   0   0
Panama City   69  80  55  75  54 /  60  30   0   0   0
Dothan        65  76  49  72  46 /  70  20   0   0   0
Albany        65  79  50  72  46 /  80  30   0   0   0
Valdosta      66  81  53  73  48 /  70  50   0   0   0
Cross City    66  81  55  77  50 /  20  30   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  79  56  75  56 /  50  30   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
522 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022

FLZ026-172200-
Liberty FL-
522 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Liberty
County through 600 PM EDT...

At 522 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Blountstown, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Woods, Hosford, Lowry, Telogia and Clio.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3024 8500 3036 8504 3036 8503 3037 8504
      3039 8501 3046 8471 3042 8471 3042 8468
      3039 8468 3037 8466 3037 8468 3035 8468
      3033 8472 3032 8470 3026 8474 3025 8470
      3023 8470 3022 8468 3021 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 262DEG 17KT 3031 8494

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

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