Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
344 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Ahead of the front, showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to
stream across mainly the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this morning
and into portions of southern Georgia. There are some differences in
the CAM guidance today on how the handle the evolution of the
precipitation today - some diminish the activity later this morning
and bring a slug of moisture back to the Big Bend region later
tonight while others progress the current area east and develop
another line later today so confidence is on the lower side with
PoPs today. Either way, the better instability is across the western
two-thirds of the CWA this morning but will quickly shift east with
the better values (~1000 J/kg) across the Florida Big Bend and south
central Georgia later this morning. While shear isn't overly
impressive, for any storms that do develop across the Big Bend or
southeast Georgia this afternoon, there is enough that some of these
storms could be strong to severe. SPC has highlighted these areas in
a slight risk for today, with a marginal risk west of there that
covers portions of the Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia. The
main threats will be damaging winds, hail and localized heavy rain,
although a tornado cannot be ruled out.

As the upper level trough swings across the region tonight,
precipitation chances will finally diminish with only low end chance
PoPs across the Big Bend tonight. Expect highs in the 70s to around
80 today with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

Finally, we get a reprieve from our active weather pattern.
Upper-level ridging builds in, and surface high pressure will
build in to the eastern US, sliding into the western Atlantic on
Monday. Thus, skies return to mostly sunny on Sunday, followed by
a few clouds Monday, but no rain is expected. Highs will be in
the lower to middle 70s on Sunday, then middle 70s to near 80 on
Monday. Lows Sunday night will mainly be in the 40s.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Well, our reprieve in the weather is unfortunately short-lived.
A deep longwave trough digs into the southern Plains by Tuesday.
The main energy then moves up into the Great Lakes by Wednesday
night with an elongating, increasingly positive-tilted trough
extending back into the Southwest US. This will keep things
unsettled in the long term.

At the surface, a deepening area of low pressure will move from
the southern Plains on Tuesday to the Great Lakes Wednesday,
bringing a cold front into the Southeast US Tuesday night into
Wednesday. There are model differences in timing of this system,
and likewise in the intensity of thunderstorms. It does appear
that there may be some severe weather risk with this next system
sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, it remains too
early to delve deep into details. Stay tuned to later forecasts.

The front may stall near or south of our area late week as the
strongly positive-tilted trough trudges eastward. Another piece of
energy comes along and may try to bring the front northward again
Friday before clearing us out next weekend. However, being a week
out, it's rather uncertain how the pattern will evolve next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

An area of showers and thunderstorms continues to stretch from TLH
to VLD and will continue over the next few hours. Additional showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be possible today and the main focus
again will be in the same area of TLH to VLD. Expect IFR conditions
mainly this morning at the TAF sites but could see some improvement
to MVFR more quickly this morning across the ECP to DHN area.

&&

.MARINE...

Dense sea fog over the eastern waters will slowly dissipate
through this morning and early afternoon. Otherwise, scattered
showers and storms will be possible today as a cold front moves
through. North to northwest winds around 15 to 20 knots will
become easterly on Sunday. Winds and seas will increase next week
as the pressure gradient tightens between departing high pressure
to our east and deepening low pressure to the northwest. Advisory
level conditions are likely with some gusts to gale force
possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms remain stretched across the Florida
Panhandle, Big Bend and south central Georgia this morning and
activity will continue to be possible through the day. High pressure
will build into the region tomorrow behind a cold front. Dry
conditions will prevail Sunday with RH values in the 30 percent
range. In addition, transport winds will be gusty and dispersion
values will be high. Areas of fog are expected this morning, some of
which will be dense, however, fog is not expected tomorrow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A widespread 2 to 5 inches of rain fell across southeast Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle with some areas receiving as much as 8
inches during the last 24 hours. Elsewhere, rainfall totals were
mainly around 1 to 3 inches.

Looking at flash flooding potential, most of the rain today will
fall east of where the heaviest rainfall fell yesterday. Rainfall
totals will generally be less than half an inch, though an
isolated area could see 1 to 2 inches today. This should not
result in flash flooding in our area today. Jumping ahead to next
week's system, it appears a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain is
possible, but some ensemble guidance suggests that higher totals
of 2 to 4 inches may be possible.

Along our rivers, today's rainfall brought many Panhandle and
southeast Alabama rivers into action stage. However, no rivers are
currently forecast to reach flood stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  48  73  46  77 /  40  30   0   0   0
Panama City   70  49  72  50  73 /  30  10   0   0   0
Dothan        71  44  70  43  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        74  46  72  43  76 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      78  49  71  45  77 /  60  30   0   0   0
Cross City    80  54  75  46  80 /  30  40  10   0   0
Apalachicola  73  50  70  52  70 /  50  40   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM...Young
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Young

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
324 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

FLZ016-GAZ156>158-190800-
Gadsden FL-Decatur GA-Grady GA-Thomas GA-
324 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Gadsden, southeastern Decatur, Grady and northwestern Thomas Counties
through 400 AM EDT...

At 323 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Whigham, or 11 miles north of Havana, moving northeast
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Havana, Cairo, Quincy, Thomasville, Ochlocknee, Whigham, Attapulgus,
Climax, Freemont, Littman, Capel, Darsey, Florence, Scotland,
Jamieson, Rocky Hill, Laingkat, Calvary, Santa Clara and Shady Rest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3094 8387 3068 8423 3068 8430 3064 8430
      3061 8432 3050 8448 3066 8469 3108 8418
      3108 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 0723Z 230DEG 39KT 3078 8436

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
412 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

GAZ145-146-157-158-190845-
Colquitt GA-Mitchell GA-Grady GA-Thomas GA-
412 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Grady,
southeastern Mitchell, northern Thomas and southwestern Colquitt
Counties through 445 AM EDT...

At 412 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cairo, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cairo, Moultrie, Ochlocknee, Coolidge, Whigham, Funston, Akridge,
Grady Co A/p, Capel, Autreyville, Center Hill, Chastain, Spence,
Dawesville, Moultrie Municipal A/P, Quality, Pine Park, Hartsfield,
Bay and Pasco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3076 8420 3089 8432 3127 8392 3108 8370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0812Z 228DEG 43KT 3088 8420

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
447 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

FLZ016-017-026-190930-
Liberty FL-Gadsden FL-Leon FL-
447 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Gadsden,
east central Liberty and central Leon Counties through 530 AM EDT...

At 446 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Greensboro, or 15 miles southwest of Quincy, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Quincy, Midway, Havana, Tallahassee, Tallahassee Comm College,
Freemont, Littman, Florence, Hosford, Scotland, Jamieson, Santa
Clara, Shady Rest, Quincy Airport, Lowry, Wetumpka, Branchville,
Bloxham, Hinson and Lake Talquin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3031 8477 3040 8481 3069 8448 3063 8431
      3045 8429
TIME...MOT...LOC 0846Z 238DEG 29KT 3038 8472

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

21-WD

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
529 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

FLZ011-013-016-026-GAZ155-156-191015-
Liberty FL-Gadsden FL-Calhoun FL-Jackson FL-Decatur GA-Seminole GA-
529 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Jackson
and northeastern Calhoun Counties in the Panhandle of Florida,
northwestern Gadsden and northwestern Liberty Counties in Big Bend of
Florida, southwestern Decatur and southeastern Seminole Counties in
southwestern Georgia through 615 AM EDT/515 AM CDT/...

At 528 AM EDT/428 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 7 miles northwest of Blountstown, moving northeast at 50
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bainbridge, Blountstown, Greensboro, West Bainbridge, Chattahoochee,
Sneads, Gretna, Bristol, Grand Ridge, Altha, Attapulgus, Brinson,
Rock Bluff, Ocheesee, Selman, Recovery, Chipola, Kennys Mill, Hugh
Creek and Red Oak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3034 8507 3052 8528 3103 8469 3078 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0928Z 227DEG 44KT 3051 8514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
530 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

FLZ016-017-GAZ157-158-191015-
Gadsden FL-Leon FL-Grady GA-Thomas GA-
530 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Gadsden, northeastern Leon, southern Grady and southwestern Thomas
Counties through 615 AM EDT...

At 529 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Midway, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Havana, Thomasville, Tallahassee, Freemont, Darsey, Florence,
Scotland, Rocky Hill, Iamonia, Calvary, Shady Rest, Princes Still,
Hinson, Moncrief, Lake Iamonia, Concord, Orchard Pond, Gibson,
Killearn Lakes and Tallahassee Coml Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8393 3067 8401 3064 8401 3049 8440
      3056 8453 3069 8439 3069 8438 3071 8438
      3085 8420 3085 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 238DEG 27KT 3055 8442

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

21-WD