Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
208 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Thunderstorms are forecast for today with convection already
spreading across SE AL and western GA. Cig and vsbys have already
dropped to IFR in DHN with the possibility LIFR cigs being
possible in the strongest areas of convection. Until storms arrive
at the other TAF sites, expect conditions to be either VFR or
MVFR pending on cloud cover. Storms will have the chance to be
strong to severe. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes will
be possible.

For tonight, cigs are forecast to lower again to IFR and LIFR
conditions. Vsby should remain good, outside of any showers or
storms that may develop, due to steady winds tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [656 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Strong to severe storms are expected across the area later this
morning into the evening. All modes of severe weather are possible,
including damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

A deepening area of low pressure over the southern Plains will move
northeastward into the Great Lakes by Saturday morning. This
initially will drag a warm front northward through our area later
this morning. An area of showers and storms over western Louisiana
will move eastward through the morning and arrive in our southeast
Alabama and western Panhandle counties late this morning into early
afternoon. This is a bit slower than the timing forecast yesterday.
The storms will continue its eastward progression into the
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint basin by about late afternoon and
into the Big Bend and I-75 corridor this evening.

With regards to the severe threat details, SPC has areas west of a
St. Marks to Ashburn line in a Slight Risk of severe weather (level
2 of 5) with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) elsewhere, except for
Dixie County. While technically this is a "downgrade" in risk for
our western areas from yesterday's outlook, it's important not to
focus on the exact risk category as the atmosphere appears
supportive of severe weather today. MLCAPE is progged to be around
1000-1500 J/kg (some CAMs are a little higher than this over our
western areas). Deep layer shear is expected to increase to 40 to 50
kt with the LLJ increasing to 35-45 kt (again, highest over the
western areas). This shear and consequent curved hodograph yields 0-
1km SRH values of around 150-250 m2/s2. STP values of 1-3 also yield
a non-zero potential for a strong tornado. All this to say that all
modes of severe weather are possible today with the highest threat
possibly over southeast Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
Residents are urged to review their severe weather safety plans and
have multiple ways to receive warnings today.

Heading into tonight, the cold front enters our area but slows down
once it reaches southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. As
another piece of upper-level energy moves into the Southeast, some
redevelopment of showers and storms is expected late tonight from
Panama city to Albany eastward. There may be a narrow tongue of
MLCAPE of ~1000 J/kg just ahead of the front, coinciding with deep
layer shear of 35-40 knots and an LLJ around 35 knots. This may
bring about another opportunity of strong to possibly severe storms,
albeit a lower chance than the daytime. Damaging winds, hail, and a
brief tornado would be possible should storms tonight become severe.

Outside of storms, winds will be rather breezy with sustained winds
of 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph. Highs will reach the 70s to
lower 80s. Lows tonight will be in the 50s to the west with 60s to
the east.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]...

An upper level trough will be situated across the mid-West Saturday
morning with another shortwave rotating through the trough. The cold
front from the near term will have stalled and will remain stretched
across the CWA on Saturday and slowly shift to the east through the
day. There will be decent instability (1500 J/kg of CAPE) with some
shear (40kts deep layer/20kts low level) that will allow for the
potential for severe weather to continue through Saturday. The main
threats will be damaging wind and hail, although a tornado cannot be
ruled out.

Some showers may linger into the nighttime hours across
the Big Bend but the severe threat will end with decreasing
instability. The upper level through will swing across the
southeast Saturday night with surface high pressure building in
for Sunday, allowing for dry conditions to return to the forecast.
Expect highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s with lows in the mid
40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Surface high pressure centered over the Apalachians will be in place
at the start of the long term. By Monday, as the surface ridge
shifts eastward and the winds come around to the east and eventually
the southeast, we'll see dewpoints across the area gradually begin
to increase. A low pressure system will push across the Plains on
Tuesday with an associated cold front moving into the southeast
Tuesday night. This will bring the return of showers and
thunderstorms to the region midweek with the potential for another
round of severe weather.

.MARINE...

A cold front will move into the region tonight and stall across the
area and slowly move east on Saturday. This will bring shower and
thunderstorm chances to the marine area through tomorrow. In
addition, winds and seas will increase and a Small Craft Advisory is
in effect today across portions of the western waters. Winds and
seas will remain elevated for much of the forecast period with Small
Craft conditions possible again early to mid week and another front
expected midweek.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and storms will move across the area beginning late this
morning in southeast Alabama, then moving eastward through the
afternoon and evening. Breezy southerly winds are expected today.
With the easternmost areas not seeing storms until this evening, the
gusty winds and higher mixing heights will lead to high dispersions
today near I-75 and the Suwannee Valley. More showers and storms
will redevelop late tonight into Saturday in the Big Bend and south
central Georgia before finally clearing out Saturday night into
Sunday. Winds will veer out of the west on Saturday, then north of
Sunday. Min RH values will also bottom out in the low to mid 30s
Sunday afternoon behind the cold front.

.HYDROLOGY...

The Fenholloway River at Foley remains in minor flood this morning
and is expected to fall below flood stage over the next few days.

We remain in a more active period of weather with a front moving
into the region tonight, bringing showers and thunderstorms to
the region through tomorrow. This will bring widespread rainfall
amounts of 1-1.5 inches to the region with isolated higher amounts
possible. Minor issues, such as ponding of water on roadways, are
possible with the localized higher amounts, however, widespread
flooding is not anticipated.

Another front will impact the region midweek and rainfall amounts
of 1-3 inches are expected. This combined with the initial rainfall
could push a few river sites into action stage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   64  75  48  73  46 /  50  60  30   0   0
Panama City   61  70  49  71  50 /  50  50  20   0   0
Dothan        58  71  44  70  44 /  30  10   0   0   0
Albany        64  74  46  72  44 /  40  30  10   0   0
Valdosta      65  76  49  71  45 /  30  70  30   0   0
Cross City    66  78  53  74  47 /  20  50  50  10   0
Apalachicola  64  71  50  70  52 /  50  60  40   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
136 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KINSTON                 31.22N 86.16W
03/18/2022                   COFFEE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANGER HAS REPORTED FLOODING ON
            COUNTY ROAD 474 IN KINSTON.

&&

KO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
138 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOWRY MILL              31.54N 85.98W
03/18/2022                   COFFEE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROADWAY ON CR 215 NEAR
            VICTORIA CEMETERY.

&&

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
140 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0131 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ENTERPRISE              31.31N 85.86W
03/18/2022                   COFFEE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER HAS REPORTED STREET
            FLOODING ALONG COLLEGE STREET IN ENTERPRISE.

&&

KO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
143 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     LIGHTNING        1 W ENTERPRISE          31.31N 85.87W
03/18/2022                   COFFEE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A STRUCTURE FIRE
            DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE ALONG CAMELLIA DR.
            IN ENTERPRISE.

&&

KO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
225 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLQUITT                31.17N 84.74W
03/18/2022                   MILLER             GA   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.

&&

KO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             2 W COWARTS             31.20N 85.34W
03/18/2022  E1.00 INCH       HOUSTON            AL   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT.

&&