Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
307 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday]...

A fairly common summer afternoon is underway, with afternoon
thunderstorms firing up along inland-advancing seabreezes, along
with other inland boundaries.

Satellite-derived PW imagery shows a narrow axis of dry mid-level
air from near Crystal River to Saint Augustine, slowly advancing
northwest. Proximity of the drier air aloft to the Nature Coast
will enhance gust potential with storms this afternoon,
especially for points from Perry southeastward. Elsewhere,
thermodynamics do not support especially strong thunderstorm wind
gusts.

That dry air aloft will pass across TLH and VLD this evening, then
the rest of the area overnight. This will simply increase
confidence in a quick end to convection around sunset this
evening and a dry night over inland areas.

By late tonight, deeper moisture will already fill back in across
the Gulf waters, so late night and morning convection will fire up
as normal over the bathtub warm 86-degree waters.

Wednesday afternoon will have a similar look and feel as today,
meaning a seasonable coverage of diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms along inland-advancing seabreezes and other leftover
boundaries.

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...

The previous forcing for our current unsettled wet pattern has moved
beyond our forecast area being supplemented by southerly flow from
off shore high pressure. With the gulf being exceptionally warm, the
southerly flow is easily picking up the abundant moisture off the
Gulf and continuing to distribute it across our forecast area as
shown in the precipitable water values of 1.75-2 inches remaining
through the work week. Showers and Thunderstorms can be expected
each afternoon with the highest coverage residing along the coast,
in the Florida Panhandle, and SE Alabama.

The weekend brings in the next synoptic feature in the form of a
trough moving southward. Dry air is expected to follow behind the
trough however there is some uncertainty in its strength and
development. Currently two scenarios are presenting themselves. If
the trough maintains enough energy to clear our area, drier air
will be ushered in and decrease PWAT values and rain chances
significantly for next week. On the contrary, if the trough lacks
the strength and energy, current ensemble guidance shows potential
for the trough to stall over our forecast area bringing with it
continued showers and thunderstorms. While it is rare that summer
cold fronts maintain the strength to completely clear our area, it
is by no mean impossible and is still a valid consideration as we
continue to monitor the development of this trough.

Despite the synoptic shift during this forecast period, high
temperatures remain in the low 90s each day with Saturday and Sunday
showing potential to be a degree or so cooler as the trough moves
in. Lows will remain unchanged residing in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Seasonable afternoon thunderstorms are underway along inland-
advancing seabreeze boundaries and other inland boundaries. This
has the potential to affect all terminals this afternoon, though
TLHs window of opportunity for thunder will likely close around
20z. After sunset, drier air aloft will spread in, bringing a
quick end to convection. The drier air exits on Wednesday morning,
so another routine round of diurnal air mass convection is
expected on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected through
the next few days with a shift to the west by Thursday. Daily
showers and thunderstorms are expected across the waters, with
gusty winds and waterspouts possible. Outside of showers and
thunderstorms, fair boating conditions are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A fairly wet pattern is expected for the next couple of days with
daily showers and thunderstorms expected across the area. Mostly south
to southwest transport winds are expected, becoming more westerly into
the weekend. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the rest of the week with locally heavy rainfall possible
each day. No widespread flooding or river flooding is expected
through the next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  91  72  91  72 /  10  50  20  70  20
Panama City   75  89  75  87  76 /  30  50  50  80  30
Dothan        71  91  72  88  71 /  30  50  20  80  20
Albany        72  93  72  91  72 /  20  40  10  60  20
Valdosta      71  93  72  92  71 /  30  40  10  50  20
Cross City    73  93  74  93  74 /  20  30  20  40  20
Apalachicola  77  87  76  87  76 /  20  50  40  70  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Darish
LONG TERM...Darish
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
409 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

FLZ018-019-092100-
Inland Jefferson FL-Madison FL-
409 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Jefferson and Madison Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 409 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Madison, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Greenville, Lovett, Moseley Hall, Ebb, Hopewell, Cherry
Lake, Hamburg, Hanson, Pinetta, Ashville and Sirmans.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 8347 3030 8347 3030 8363 3033 8372
      3065 8367 3064 8334 3063 8328 3062 8327
      3059 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 205DEG 10KT 3037 8359

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD