Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
250 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

.NEAR TERM [Tonight and Monday]...

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues into this evening as a
moderate easterly sea-breeze flow regime acts on seasonably high
instability. SPC Mesoanalysis indicates widespread DCAPE of 800-
900 J/kg across over much of the tri-state area, as northerly mid
level flow advects drier air in aloft, especially north of I-10.
The environment will be supportive of thunderstorms w/ wind gusts
up to 40 mph, and a couple storms capable of damaging wind gusts,
invof I-10 in the FL Counties and closer to the I-75 in Georgia.
Storm motions propagate slowly southward within the mean cloud
layer flow. This combined with above average Precipitable Water
around 2.0 inches will yield localized poor drainage flooding,
especially in the FL Counties.

Patchy fog is possible again late tonight into Monday morning,
with guidance indicating the most coverage in Southeast Alabama
spilling over into the Georgia Counties; the forecast reflects
this.

On Monday, a moderate easterly sea-breeze flow regime continues.
PoPs are typical of this, ranging 30-60% (ISO 70%), highest in
the FL Counties. Model soundings indicate modest inverted-V or
caret profiles, resulting in more substantial DCAPE. In addition,
mid-level winds are slightly higher compared to Sunday, around
15 to 20 kts. The environment will be conducive to thunderstorms
with gusty winds, and a couple storms capable of damaging wind
gusts during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SHORT AND LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Sunday]...

High pressure will dominate through the long term. Typical
summertime conditions of showers and thunderstorms will develop
each day along the sea breeze and outflow boundaries. This
activity is not expected to be severe but some storms could
produce gusty winds, and heavy rainfall will also be a concern due
to PWAT values being around and above 2 inches. Localized
flooding may be a concern if storms begin to train over an area.
PoPs through the week will range from 30-50 percent (mainly for
the Florida counties) with the most likely time during the
afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures during this period will
be in the upper 80s and low 90s for the afternoon Highs, with heat
indices approaching and around 100 degrees. Overnight lows will
hold steady in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

Sea-breeze driven SHRA and TSRA will move northward across the
terminals this afternoon and evening, with the highest coverage at
ECP, TLH, and VLD. Brief MVFR restrictions are possible. There
was also high enough confidence to include a TEMPO group for fog
at DHN and VLD late tonight and early Monday morning. Winds East
to Southeast, except South to Southwest at ABY and DHN, around 5
kts or less through the period.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will dominate the forecast which will lead to
favorable boating conditions. Seas will generally be at 1 to 2
feet, while light to gentle east and south breezes prevail.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, and may
locally raise seas and winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low dispersion is possible across portions of the tri-state area
on Monday due to low transport winds. Moderate dispersion returns
on Tuesday and Wednesday. Daily, seabreeze driven showers and
thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening, with
the highest chances in the FL Counties, with briefly erratic winds
and heavy rainfall.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

There are no major flooding concerns as high pressure will
dominate the forecast period. Any showers and thunderstorms that
do develop will likely be along the seabreeze and other
boundaries. Ensembles and model guidance have PWATs generally
ranging from 1.75 to 2.0 inches, so heavy rain will remain a
threat with stronger and or slow moving areas of precipitation. If
that happens, we may see localized flooding issues for urban,
low- lying, and poor drainage areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  91  74  90  75 /  20  60  10  30  10
Panama City   74  89  77  88  78 /  20  50  10  30  10
Dothan        72  90  74  90  74 /  30  30   0  30   0
Albany        73  91  75  91  75 /  30  30  10  20   0
Valdosta      71  91  74  91  74 /  30  40  10  20   0
Cross City    71  92  74  91  75 /  20  50  10  30  10
Apalachicola  75  87  78  86  78 /  20  40  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM...Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...KR

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
640 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

GAZ159-160-242315-
Brooks GA-Lowndes GA-
640 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Lowndes
and central Brooks Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 640 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Quitman, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Quitman, Valdosta, Morven, Nankin, Brooks Co A/p, Blue Springs and
Kinderlou.

LAT...LON 3064 8344 3064 8348 3082 8370 3099 8346
      3074 8329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 141DEG 13KT 3075 8343

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
641 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

GAZ129-131-148-242315-
Berrien GA-Tift GA-Irwin GA-
641 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Irwin,
northwestern Berrien and eastern Tift Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 640 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Enigma, or 9 miles southeast of Tifton, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tifton, Ocilla, Enigma, Mystic, Vanceville, Tift Airport, Harding,
Brookfield, Waterloo and Pinetta.

LAT...LON 3165 8326 3133 8324 3129 8343 3132 8344
      3135 8343 3135 8344 3134 8345 3134 8346
      3159 8356 3159 8350 3162 8350 3166 8327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 169DEG 19KT 3139 8336

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
644 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

GAZ129-146-242315-
Tift GA-Colquitt GA-
644 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Colquitt
and Tift Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 643 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles north of Tifton to 6 miles southeast of
Norman Park. Movement was north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tifton, Omega, Norman Park, Ty Ty, Phillipsburg, Unionville,
Ellenton, Hillsdale, Cool Spring, Eldorado, Chula, Harding, Tift
Airport, Fender, Crosland and Sunsweet.

LAT...LON 3159 8350 3157 8350 3157 8347 3156 8347
      3155 8342 3133 8349 3132 8351 3125 8351
      3115 8355 3124 8369 3133 8368 3133 8365
      3143 8365 3143 8367 3148 8367 3149 8365
      3160 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 185DEG 8KT 3157 8351 3120 8361

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
646 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSW KINDERLOU         30.74N 83.40W
07/24/2022  M40 MPH          LOWNDES            GA   MESONET

            AMBIENT WEATHER STATION GUSTED TO 40 MPH.

&&