Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
358 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move eastward across the
region this afternoon and these storms continue to have the
potential for gusty winds to about 40 mph and locally heavy rain.
Rain rates have been on the higher side, but storms for the most
part have been progressive today. Convection will diminish into
tonight.

A portion of the weak upper level trough across the region lifts
northeast this afternoon into tonight, with another shortwave
sinking into the southeast tomorrow afternoon/evening. We have
plenty of moisture around tomorrow with PW values around 2 inches
(higher across SE AL and SW GA), but have lower PoPs 40-50% for
tomorrow compared to today. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible on Thursday with the primary threat being gusty winds. SPC
has highlighted southeast AL and portions of southwest Georgia in a
marginal risk for severe storms tomorrow. Isolated heavy rainfall
and localized flooding will also be possible. Expect lows tonight in
the mid 70s with highs tomorrow around 90.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]...

After another busy afternoon of convection on Thursday, we'll see
showers and storms lingering across the area into the overnight
hours as a weak upper level trough remains in place across Georgia
and Alabama. Rain chances will continue to remain high across the
area on Friday, especially across Alabama and Georgia where a weak
frontal boundary and elongated upper level trough remains. With
weak upper level flow in the vicinity of this trough, localized
flooding will continue to remain a concern through the day, as
well as the low end potential for an isolated strong storm or two
in the afternoon.

High temperatures will range from the upper 80s across Alabama and
Georgia where rain chances are highest to the low 90s across
Florida where lower rain chances area forecast through the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The weekend will see a transition to drier conditions as an upper
level ridge begins to build across the area. PWATS drop below 2"
for most of the area, decreasing rain chances, yet not eliminating
them entirely. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still
possible throughout the weekend however the focus shifts towards
the potential high temperatures. With ridging in place, this
synoptic pattern presents several opportunities in the long term
forecast period for high daytime temperatures to reach into the
upper 90s with heat indices having the potential to reach advisory
criteria around 105 to 110. Currently highs for the long term
period are in the mid 90s for much of the area with overnight lows
in the mid to high 70s.

As ridging is expected to dominate throughout the forecast period,
rain chances remain low, residing below 40% each day. Even with low
rain chances, summer convection in the form of scattered showers and
thunderstorms are still possible especially into the middle of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

Scattered TSRA is stretched from west of TLH to ABY and east to VLD
and is moving east. Convection will continue this afternoon and
brief gusty winds of 30kts and lower cigs/vsbys are possible with
the storms. Activity will diminish tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will dominate through the next few days influencing
general southwest flow. This moderate southwest flow will
transition into light southwest flow come Friday. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible during this period with localized
elevated winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day and with winds on
the lighter side, there are no fire weather concerns besides high
dispersion values across portions of the Florida Panhandle, Big
Bend, and southwest Georgia tomorrow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Steering flow will lighten through the next few days and with
moist conditions still forecast to remain in place, a low end
threat for localized flash flooding can't be ruled out. Despite
widespread rainfall amounts of only 0.5 to 1 inches the next few
days, the heavier rain rates in storms could lead to localized
areas receiving 2 to 4 inches of rainfall.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  91  75  93  74 /  10  40  10  40  10
Panama City   79  88  78  89  76 /  20  50  10  40  10
Dothan        75  91  75  86  72 /  10  50  30  70  10
Albany        75  92  75  89  74 /  20  50  30  70  10
Valdosta      74  91  74  94  73 /  20  30  10  40  10
Cross City    75  91  74  94  74 /  20  40   0  30  10
Apalachicola  78  87  78  89  76 /  20  40  10  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM...Darish/Dobbs
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Darish/Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
308 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

FLZ009-010-202100-
Holmes FL-Washington FL-
308 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Holmes and
north central Washington Counties through 400 PM CDT...

At 308 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Bonifay, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bonifay, Ponce De Leon, Caryville, Westville, Miller Crossroads,
Cerrogordo, Bethlehem, Prosperity, Gritney, Five Points, Ards
Crossroads, Hulaw, Hickory Hill, Izagora, Baker Settlement, Poplar
Head, Johnson Crossroads and Whitehead Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3071 8595 3089 8597 3097 8566 3070 8562
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 262DEG 13KT 3082 8588

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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