Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1107 AM EDT Thu Jul 14 2022

.UPDATE...

Showers and storms are beginning to develop across the area this
morning. High POPs remain in the forecast for today and the main
concerns with any convection will be high rainfall rates and the
potential for flooding in areas where storm motions are slow, or
the training of storms develops. An isolated storm could be strong
or severe storm can't be ruled out among the more organized areas
of convection today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [647 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An upper level ridge is situated across the Plains and four corners
region with the Bermuda high over the Atlantic. Between these two
features, an upper level trough was located across the eastern CONUS
with the CWA on the tail end of this. With this pattern and PW
values in the 2-2.2 inch range, an active day is expected and PoPs
are in the 70-80% range. Convection has been persistent near the
Panhandle coast overnight and will continue through the morning with
activity developing across the rest of the land area late morning
into the afternoon.

There are two primary hazards to focus on today. One, storms will
continue to be efficient rain producers and high rainfall rates
could lead to some localized flooding. WPC has included the region
in slight risk (level 2 of 4) in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook.
Two, while shear in on the lower side, there will be enough
instability for a few strong storms with gusty winds. SPC has
highlighted most of the CWA in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5). High
temperatures today will be limited by convective activity - expect
highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s with lows tonight in the lower to
mid 70s.

.SHORT AND LONG TERM [Friday Through Thursday]...

The moist pattern continues through the next week as a pinned east
CONUS trough slowly progresses northeastward through this weekend,
with a second trough moving in behind it at the beginning of the
work week. The lack of steering flow when accompanied by high
precipitable water values means we'll continue to see showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon with the potential for flash flooding
as these storms fail to move much while producing high rain rates.
Expect daytime highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s with
overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Friday]

A few showers were located around ECP this morning and expect the
activity to continue for the next few hours. After that, expect to
see additional development near TLH and then extending further
inland to the remainder of the TAF sites. Gusty winds and brief
periods of lower cigs/vsbys will be possible with the
thunderstorms. Convection will diminish this evening into tonight.

.MARINE...

The Atlantic ridge axis will move north today and tomorrow, bringing
lighter and more variable winds. The ridge will weaken this weekend
as it moves north through Georgia, bringing gentle and moderate
southeast to south breezes. Otherwise, look for higher winds and
seas near showers and thunderstorms.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tomorrow
that will preclude fire weather concerns. Outside of any
thunderstorms, winds will be light, although that may lead to
variability in the direction. Patchy areas of low dispersion values
are possible across the tri-state region today and tomorrow.

.HYDROLOGY...

Current WPC guidance has our CWA receiving up to 3 inches or so
over the next week, however, thunderstorms of course are capable
of producing heavy downpours which can lead to short-lived
drainage issues associated with flash flooding.

No areal or river flooding is expected for the next 7 days due to
thunderstorm spatial coverage being too small to create hydrologic
issues for area rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   91  73  87  71  86 /  80  50  90  40  70
Panama City   88  76  85  74  86 /  70  70  80  50  60
Dothan        86  73  85  71  87 /  80  50  80  30  50
Albany        88  73  87  71  88 /  80  50  80  30  60
Valdosta      91  73  87  71  88 /  80  50  90  40  70
Cross City    91  73  88  72  88 /  70  50  80  50  80
Apalachicola  87  76  85  74  85 /  70  70  80  60  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Dobbs
NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM...Oliver
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
950 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

ALZ066-069-141515-
Dale AL-Houston AL-
950 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Dale and
northwestern Houston Counties through 1015 AM CDT...

At 950 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Daleville, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Daleville, Dothan, Ozark, Fort Rucker, Midland City, Newton,
Pinckard, Clayhatchee, Grimes, Napier Field, Hollis Dairy Road, Hunt
Field, Waterford, Knox Field, Ewell, Cairns Aaf, Sylvan Grove, Green
Acres, Bagwells Crossroads and Power Dam Road.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3125 8574 3137 8575 3147 8546 3120 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 1450Z 262DEG 10KT 3132 8566

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Haner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1045 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

ALZ069-FLZ011-141615-
Houston AL-Jackson FL-
1045 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Houston
and northeastern Jackson Counties through 1115 AM CDT...

At 1044 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Cottonwood, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Malone, Greenwood, Bascom, Grangeburg, Ellaville, Buena Vista,
Marianna Municipal A/P, Sills and Lovedale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3081 8528 3097 8538 3111 8516 3087 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1544Z 242DEG 7KT 3093 8526

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Haner

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