Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
211 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...

Active afternoon of summertime convection will continue into the
evening as outflow boundaries from coastal and inland activity
interacts. Expect activity to wane by mid to late evening with
fair weather thereafter.

For Thursday, a weak tropical wave along the southeastern coast
of Florida is forecast to lift northward through the day. This may
keep a focus of convection along the eastern seaboard, with a
slight minima on the western flank of the system, across the
eastern Big Bend and I-75 corridor. This is where the low-level
low associated with the system will be have a less favorable
northerly component. Farther west, the low-level flow will
continue to have a more favorable southerly component.
Therefore will have higher PoPs over the western zones, and
slightly lower PoPs over the eastern zones for Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures will reflect this temperature distribution as well.

.SHORT & LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

Upper level ridging will continue our weather pattern of
southerly and southeasterly flow through the long term. High
pressure over the Atlantic (Bermuda High) will be the dominating
force for our weather for the extended period. The
southerly/southeasterly flow that comes from this will allow for
deep tropical moisture to traverse inland to the Southeast U.S..
We can expect afternoon showers and thunderstorms to be scattered
around the CWA and be capable of producing heavy rainfall over
short periods of time throughout the week into next week. With
PWAT values expected to be around 2" through the next several
days, some storms can produce efficient rainfall with increased
rainfall rates that could lead to localized flash flooding in
areas of poor drainage or if the storms are training over the
area. A few thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong
gusty winds. PoPs are around 45-75% for the weekend. PoPs will be
around 20-40% chance for the start of the work week. Temperatures
through the period will be in the upper 80s into the weekend and
reaching the lower 90s for the start of next week. Because we will
have high dew points in the 70s with RH values in the 60s most
afternoons, the heat index will feel like 100 degrees for many
areas this weekend into next week. Although, at this time, heat
advisories are not expected. Overnight lows will be in the mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

Scattered showers and thunderstorm are continuing to develop
early this afternoon and will impact area terminals through the
early/mid evening hours. By late evening, expect VFR conditions to
return and prevail through the overnight into the morning on
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly to southeasterly winds at around 5-10 knots are
forecast through the end of the work week, and into the weekend.
With winds this light, seas will generally be around 1-2 feet
across all marine forecast zones through the weekend leading to
generally calm boating conditions for the holiday weekend. There
will however be the chance for showers and thunderstorms each day,
which may briefly lead to brief instances of increased winds and
seas in their vicinity.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A wet weather will be situated over the region through the
holiday weekend. Afternoon low dispersions and lightning and gusty
and erratic winds from thunderstorms will be the main fire
weather concerns for the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected everyday through the long
term. Some of these showers could produce heavy rainfall and also
lead to localized flash flooding (especially if storms are
training over an area). Due to abnormally dry to moderate drought
conditions, rain will be welcome. River flooding is not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  92  73  90  73 /  30  60  30  70  40
Panama City   74  89  75  88  76 /  40  50  30  60  40
Dothan        71  89  71  88  72 /  50  70  30  80  30
Albany        73  91  73  89  73 /  40  70  30  80  40
Valdosta      71  91  72  88  71 /  30  70  30  80  40
Cross City    72  93  73  90  73 /  20  60  40  80  40
Apalachicola  76  87  77  87  76 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM...Montgomery
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery

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