Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
126 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

KTLH cigs have improved to VFR this afternoon, with VFR
conditions remaining for the other terminals. Starting to see
isolated -SHRA/-TSRA south of the terminals, with computer models
hinting at further development later today. This activity could
infringe upon the terminals in a scattered manner, resulting in
the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall /and a brief period
of limited VIS/. Have elected to maintain a -SHRA/-TSRA mention
throughout the terminals, and tried to time when the precip
activity would affect the terminals. By early evening, the precip
activity should be near/across the northern terminals before
dissipating. Southerly winds will become variable overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1009 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The dry air that was in place over the Tri-state region on Monday
has been slowly eroding as moisture has been advecting into the
region from the southeast. Forecast PWAT values across the Tri-state
region are expected to be almost double compared to Monday, with
values between 2 and 2.25 inches. These high PW values have
warranted WPC to issue a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across
a portion of the forecast area from the Florida Panhandle towards SE
Alabama and SW Georgia. These high of PW values can lead to
extremely efficient rainfall rates between 5-6 inches per hour in
strong thunderstorms. If these rates were to occur over an area
(especially urbanized) for any length of time, there could localized
flash flooding. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop
along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary later this morning along
the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and push inland across SE
Alabama and SW Georgia by the late afternoon and early evening
hours. Some shower and thunderstorm activity could last into the
overnight hours across SW Georgia and SE Alabama. Overall, storm
activity will keep temperatures slightly cooler today, with highs in
the low to mid 90s for much of the area. SW Georgia could see
slightly higher temperatures as dry air still present across this
portion of the area earlier in the day will allow for slightly
longer heating before showers and thunderstorms move into the area.
Lows tonight are forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s areawide.

.SHORT AND LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Tuesday]...

Unsettled weather is forecast for the period. Cluster analysis
shows near zonal flow over the easter U.S. with ridging building
farther west. A series of embedded impulses, combined with the
warm and moist unstable airmass will lead to renewed chances for
showers and thunderstorms each day. The main concern with storms
will be heavy rain and perhaps gusty winds. Outside of the wet
weather, expect warm and muggy conditions with highs ranging from
the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows holding in the low to
mid 70s each night.

.MARINE...

A few isolated showers with embedded thunder have developed near
the Forgotten Coast and across our western waters this morning.
This activity should move onshore and exit the Okaloosa-Walton
County line by midday. Otherwise, the forecast remains in good
shape. Offshore buoys are observing southeast winds near 10 knots
with 1-2 ft seas. See previous synopsis below:

Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes are forecast for the
period, which will lead to seas around 1 to 2 feet. The main
concern for this week will be shower and thunderstorms over the
Gulf, which could briefly increase winds and seas at times.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A wet pattern will limit any fire weather concerns for the next
several days as minimum RH values climb through the middle and end
of the work week. As moisture increases across the region, so will
the chances for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
These showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty
and erratic wind shifts in their vicinity, especially with any
outflows that may develop.

.HYDROLOGY...

The start of a wetter weather pattern will begin today and
continue through the holiday weekend. As of right now, the
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Excessive Rainfall holds over
the northwest portion of the area, from roughly Berrien Co in
Georgia to Walton County in Florida. Rainfall amounts today vary
from 0.10 inches to roughly 1.0 inch, with locally higher amounts
being possible. Nuisance and poor drainage flooding may occur,
though localized flash flooding may be possible. Tomorrow, the
Excessive Rainfall Outlook paints all of the service area in the
Marginal Risk. Through the 7 day period, a widespread 1 to 2
inches of total rain is expected, though locally higher amounts
will be possible. No river flooding is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   91  73  91  73  91 /  50  40  60  30  60
Panama City   89  75  88  75  89 /  60  40  60  30  50
Dothan        92  72  90  71  88 /  50  50  70  40  50
Albany        94  73  91  73  90 /  50  60  70  40  60
Valdosta      94  72  92  71  91 /  50  50  70  40  60
Cross City    91  72  91  73  92 /  40  50  60  40  60
Apalachicola  87  78  87  76  88 /  50  30  50  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM...KR
AVIATION...Bowser
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...KR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
249 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022

FLZ010-012-013-112-281930-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-Washington FL-
249 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Bay,
northwestern Calhoun and southeastern Washington Counties in the
Panhandle of Florida through 330 PM EDT/230 PM CDT/...

At 249 PM EDT/149 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 15 miles northeast of Lynn Haven, moving northwest at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lynn Haven, Moose Pond, Southport, Fountain, Singer Road, College
Station, Bayou George, Camp Flowers, Camps Head, Gainer Spring,
Bennett, Youngstown, Porter Lake, Vicksburg, Majette, Nixon, Betts,
Bayhead, Recota Beach and Saunders.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3057 8568 3056 8522 3047 8516 3020 8550
      3033 8581
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 127DEG 11KT 3037 8543

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

01-GONZALEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
208 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

FLZ008-010-012-108-281945-
Central Walton FL-Inland Bay FL-South Walton FL-Washington FL-
208 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Walton
and southwestern Washington Counties through 245 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles northwest of Panama City Beach, moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Freeport, Ebro, Bruce and Pine Log.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3050 8615 3058 8585 3039 8585 3039 8599
      3035 8599 3035 8601 3038 8605 3040 8606
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 164DEG 5KT 3041 8596

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

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