Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
413 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

...DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR GEORGIA
COUNTIES...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday]...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for nearly all of our
southwest GA counties until 8 PM ET as an MCS over southern GA
continues to move southwestward around the southeast side of a
strong ridge. The environment ahead of the line is rather impressive
with 4000-5000 J/kg of CAPE and 1000-1200 J/kg of DCAPE. The only
thing acting against the storms is a lack of shear. After the sun
sets, the line should weaken as we lose daytime heating and the
outflow/cold pool starts outrunning the storm. Scattered showers and
storms are also possible elsewhere this evening before fading. Muggy
conditions continue through the night with lows in the middle to
upper 70s.

Wednesday's forecast is dependent on how the weather evolves the
rest of today. It's possible that the cold pool from today's storms
helps stabilize the atmosphere and prevents redevelopment of storms.
However, it appears we may be removed far enough in time for the
atmosphere to destabilize Wednesday afternoon. CAPE will once again
increase to 3000-4000+ J/kg with DCAPE of 1000-1200 J/kg. There will
also be some shear (15-25 knots), which may be sufficient for
organized storms yet again. Another MCS may materialize to the east
or northeast of our area and move across the CWA late in the
afternoon into the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined
our entire forecast area in a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2
of 5) for the threat of damaging winds.

The other story, and more certain story, is the heat potential for
tomorrow. Highs should reach the middle to upper 90s across the
area, with perhaps a few areas cracking the century mark in
southwest and south central GA. Heat index values will soar to 107
to 113 across the area (highest readings in the Big Bend). Thus,
have issued a Heat Advisory for the entire area again on Wednesday.
It's possible that an Excessive Heat Warning may be needed for the
Big Bend, but will let later shifts decide.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night]...

Pending how Wednesday's thunderstorm potential pans out, we could
be see thunderstorms exiting the region late Wednesday into early
Thursday morning. Confidence is on the low end for this, thus be
sure to have a way to get the latest forecast. Should the system
move quicker, renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday. One thing that is certain, will be the continuation of
sweltering heat. High temperatures for Thursday are forecast to be
in the mid to upper 90s for inland areas, while coastal
communities rise into the low to mid 90s. Heat Indices will be
nasty as well, ranging from 105 to 110, potentially higher for the
SE Big Bend. Continue to practice your heat safety as we set in
for a prolonged heat wave.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Ensembles show the upper level ridge flattening by late Friday,
but unfortunately, that will be short lived. Guidance supports the
ridge building back and the amplifying for the extended period.
This means that the hot temperatures will likely continue through
the extended with no relief insight. Latest model guidance and
various ensembles show high return intervals for the continuation
of extreme heat. We're currently in the beginning of this
potentially long lasting heat wave, so be sure to brush up on your
heat safety knowledge. Remember to stay hydrated, stay cool, take
frequent breaks if working outside, wear light colored clothing
and sunblock, to look before you lock if traveling with young
loved ones or pets, and to check on your friends, family, and
neighbors. For details about heat safety, please visit
weather.gov/safety/heat to #beattheheat.

In terms of precip for the extended forecast, current thinking is
that we may have a chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday.
Think it will be equally important to pay attention to the ridge
set up once again, as some models do hint at the possibility of
some ridge riding areas of vorticity. Confidence is low on that
end, thus the current PoP forecast is on the lower end as well and
that the ridge may supress precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Scattered thunderstorms are developing near all terminals but DHN
this afternoon. This will continue through the afternoon into the
early evening. An organized squall line may develop to the northeast
of the area and move southwesterly toward ABY late this afternoon
into the early evening. Some of these storms could be strong to
severe with strong winds possible. There is low confidence as to how
far southwest this line may get, but TLH and VLD have greater
chances of storms than DHN and ECP. After about 02z, most storms
will fade with storms not redeveloping until after the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...

Mainly westerly flow is expected through tomorrow, which will keep
seas elevated between 1 and 3 feet. There is a chance for some
nearshore showers and thunderstorms today. Currently, there are some
areas of precip along the coast where the seabreeze has kicked up;
however, chances may increase into the evening hours as a line of
storms could sweep into the FL Panhandle and clip the near shore
waters. Tomorrow afternoon and evening, the forecast could pan out
in a similar fashion, as another storm system could track through
the region. Boaters should pay close attention to storm trends, and
their severity, each afternoon while out on the Gulf to be sure they
can reach port should an organized group of severe storms develop
over land and move into area waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The combination of light transport winds and high mixing heights
will result in fair dispersions across the area on Wednesday.
However, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected beginning over
south central GA mid-afternoon, sweeping westward across the
forecast area through late afternoon into early evening. Outside of
storms, dangerous heat is expected with heat indices up to 113
possible. Rain chances decrease Thursday and Friday, but increased
transport winds and high mixing heights will result in high
dispersions Thursday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Generally light rainfall amounts are forecast over the next several
days and area rivers are in good shape. However, daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for some to be
strong, may be capable of producing locally heavy downpours, and
subsequent minor/nuisance flooding. If storms linger/train, there
could also be a risk for minor/nuisance flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  98  75  97  75 /  40  50  50  30  10
Panama City   77  91  76  92  78 /  20  20  40  20  10
Dothan        74  96  74  96  75 /  40  40  60  30  10
Albany        76  99  75  98  76 /  50  60  50  30  10
Valdosta      74  98  74  97  73 /  50  70  40  30  10
Cross City    75  96  74  97  74 /  20  40  40  30  10
Apalachicola  77  90  77  89  78 /  10  20  40  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     South Walton-Washington.

     Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Wednesday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM...KR
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...KR/Dobbs

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