Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
259 PM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]...

Right now, there is a substantial moisture and instability
gradient, especially once you get north of a Dothan-Valdosta line.
South of that line, the air mass is very unstable, and
Precipitable Water (PW) values increase from 1.5" along that line
to a very moist 1.8 to 2.0 inches near the coast. North of that
line, moisture and instability taper off quickly, with surface
dewpoints in the 59-65F range across our northern tier of GA
counties.

With that in mind, the large MCS currently moving across
Mississippi should propagate and move more toward the favorable
moist and unstable air along and south of that Dothan-Valdosta
line. The MCS could still be on the strong side as it reaches
Walton and Geneva Counties late this afternoon, but it should
weaken as it moves toward the Eastern Time Zone later this
evening.

In advance of the MCS, more typical seabreeze convection
is firing off. Wet Microburst Severity Index (WMSI) value are very
high today, indicating a very favorable environment for gusty
thunderstorms downburst winds. Earlier today, the cluster of
storms that moved across the northeast Gulf produced numerous wind
gust reports of 30-40 mph along the coast from Cape San Blas all
the way around to Dixie County. Given effective bulk shear
approaching 25 knots, the afternoon land-based convection will
have hearty gust potential as well.

The higher PW values on Saturday will spread inland as 1000-700 mb
flow backs in direction from west to southwest. We will see
another large flare-up in convective cells over the Gulf late
tonight and Saturday morning, with a pretty high coverage of
convection along the seabreeze and inland on Saturday afternoon.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Sunday Night]...

Upper level troughing will remain over the region through this
period with surface high pressure off to our southeast and an upper
level ridge to our northwest. The result will be southwesterly low
level flow and northwesterly flow aloft. Lingering convection from
Saturday will linger well into the evening hours Saturday night. We
will need to keep a look out for MCS's coming in from the northwest
on Sunday with the low level flow regime being supportive of sea-
breeze induced storms. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected. Temperatures will peak in the lower 90s for most area with
upper 80s closer to the coast. Heat indices will exceed 100 in some
areas, and perhaps get as high as 105 in one or two spots across the
inland panhandle. The ridge will drift back to the west toward the
end of the week meaning we'll be susceptible to MCS's coming in from
the north.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The upper ridge will build east closer to the area for the early and
middle part of the work week. This will allow temperatures to reach
the mid 90s. Heat indices will easily exceed 100 degrees away from
the coastal areas with isolated numbers near 108 (local heat
advisory criteria) on Thursday and Friday. We believe the NBM
temperatures and particularly the dew points are running a bit to
high in the long term and some adjustments were made.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Afternoon thunderstorms are developing along the seabreeze front
over the Panhandle. Late this afternoon and this evening, we will
be watching the lingering leftovers of a strong thunderstorm
complex currently over MS cross the FL Panhandle and possibly SE
Alabama. Late tonight, a large flare-up of thunder is expected
over the Gulf waters, with W-SW flow aloft taking morning thunder
near the coast. Numerous convective cells will pop up over land on
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

With a ridge of high pressure to the south of the marine area,
expect a prolonged period of southwest to west winds. Winds will
reach cautionary levels from tonight into early Sunday before
subsiding a bit for the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Erratic and gusty winds near thunderstorms will be the main fire
weather concern through Saturday. Gust potential for storms will
be greater than normal by summertime standards. Otherwise, a moist
and unstable air mass will be in place this weekend. Dispersion
values will be moderate to high on Saturday and Sunday due to the
instability and elevated transport winds as a front settle south
across Alabama and Georgia.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Above normal precipitation is expected to continue through Sunday
over Southeast AL, the FL Big Bend and Panhandle, where rainfall
amounts may approach 2 inches. Isolated higher amounts around 5
inches are possible in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. In addition
to flooding of poor drainage areas, this may result in isolated
flash flooding if the higher amounts fall in a short period of
time. For Monday through Friday, precip amounts should be closer
to average, with more typical summertime sea- breeze convection
expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  92  73  90  74 /  20  60  40  60  10
Panama City   76  87  77  88  78 /  50  60  40  50  10
Dothan        70  90  72  91  74 /  30  60  40  50  10
Albany        73  93  73  94  75 /  20  60  40  50  10
Valdosta      72  92  72  91  73 /  10  60  40  60  10
Cross City    74  90  74  89  75 /  50  60  40  60  20
Apalachicola  76  87  77  87  78 /  40  60  40  50  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Wool/LF

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