Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
320 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...

High pressure over the Atlantic will bring light onshore flow to the
region. The seabreeze is expected to kick up showers and
thunderstorms along it as it heads into a warmer and unstable
airmass. The best chances for precipitation look to be along SW GA
and the FL Big Bend, especially along the I-75 corridor. SPC has
expanded the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5 ) to cover the eastern Big
Bend with general thunder risk panted across our GA counties and
western Big Bend counties. The primary threats for today would be
damaging wind, the potential for some hail, and heavy rain should
storms meander. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
fizzle out shortly after sunset, though a few isolated showers may
linger into the night. Tonight, low temperatures fall into the mid
to upper 60s.

Tomorrow, a similar forecast on tap for the tri-state. High
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast under partly
cloudy skies. An ridge riding shortwave will pass over the region,
which will increase the chance of shower and thunderstorm activity
over the region. With a healthy amount of CAPE and DCAPE, storms
could become robust and product gusty winds and perhaps even some
hail; however, confidence is on the lower end given high pressure
will be the dominate pattern. 30 to 50 percent PoPs have been
advertised with the highest chance for precipitation being along our
eastern GA and FL counties.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night]...

The summertime pattern continues throughout the short term with
afternoon pop-up thunderstorms expected, forced through diurnal
mechanisms. Although, ridging will begin to build over the area, so
coverage isn't expected to be widespread. Expect daytime highs in
the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

In the long term we'll see a subtle mid-level disturbance cross
eastern CONUS Thursday into Friday in the form of a weak cold front.
The low-level 850mb trough that accompanies the subtle mid-level
disturbance is expected to cross through our CWA throughout Friday.
The lack of upper-level support will limit robust convection to the
usual summertime-type of storms. However, this low-level trough will
play an integral roll in potentially steering away any tropical
feature that potentially develops in the NW Caribbean Sea this
weekend, which the NHC currently has a 40% chance for development.
Potentially keeping it to our south and east, leaving our region
with minimal impacts. However, this could change with subsequent
forecast updates, be sure to check back here and at
www.hurricanes.gov for the latest.

Otherwise, expect daytime highs in the low to mid 90s with overnight
lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

Primarily VFR conditions will prevail today, outside of any
thunderstorms that develop along the seabreeze from the Atlantic.
Current guidance has precipitation painted over SW GA and the FL Big
Bend, which could drop ceilings and vis for periods. Precipitation
winds down as the evening progresses with skies clearing during the
overnight hours. Tomorrow, the forecast will be similar except
showers and thunderstorms look to be possible at all TAF sites
during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...

Boating conditions remain favorable through the next several days.
East to southeast winds will continue through Wednesday before
becoming more west-northwesterly late in the week. Winds will remain
below cautionary levels through the period with seas around 1 to 3
feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across SW GA
and the FL Big Bend this afternoon and evening, with the primary
threats being gusty winds and hail. Precipitation chances begin to
falter after sundown, with skies gradually clearing for the
overnight hours. RH recovery for tonight is expected to be good to
excellent, and with light winds in place, we could see patchy fog
develop. Tomorrow, a similar forecast is in store, though
dispersions will start of low across the CWA and increase throughout
the day and as you go inland. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across the entire area, but may be limited due to high
pressure overhead. If it is not raining, expect warm and dry
conditions to be accompanied with light winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall totals will generally be around an inch and a half or less
over the next 7 days. Thus, no riverine or widespread flash flooding
is expected. Localized heavier amounts possible within pop-up
thunderstorms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  91  68  92  69 /  10  40  10  20   0
Panama City   70  87  71  88  72 /   0  20  10  20   0
Dothan        67  89  68  90  69 /  10  30  10  20   0
Albany        69  92  69  94  71 /  20  30  10  20   0
Valdosta      67  91  67  92  67 /  30  40  10  20   0
Cross City    68  91  68  92  68 /  30  50  10  20  10
Apalachicola  72  85  72  86  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM...Oliver
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
624 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022

GAZ146-158>160-302300-
Brooks GA-Lowndes GA-Colquitt GA-Thomas GA-
624 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Lowndes, northeastern
Thomas, Brooks and southeastern Colquitt Counties through 700 PM
EDT...

At 624 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pavo to near Lake Park. Movement was north
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Park, Moultrie, Quitman, Valdosta, Hahira, Pavo, Coolidge, I-75
At Exit 16, Riverside, Schley, Remerton, Dasher, Morven, Berlin,
Barwick, Thomasville Municipal A/P, Enon, South Moultrie,
Merrillville and Moultrie Municipal A/P.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3080 8313 3077 8314 3063 8314 3064 8336
      3090 8389 3126 8385 3110 8357 3108 8358
      3105 8355 3103 8345 3083 8310 3080 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 173DEG 17KT 3097 8368 3065 8323

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
626 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022

FLZ016-017-GAZ157-158-302300-
Gadsden FL-Leon FL-Grady GA-Thomas GA-
626 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Gadsden,
northeastern Leon, southern Grady and southwestern Thomas Counties
through 700 PM EDT...

At 626 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles south of Cairo to 6 miles east of
Havana. Movement was east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Havana, Tallahassee, Freemont, Darsey, Moncrief, Lake Iamonia,
Concord, Scotland, Orchard Pond, Rocky Hill, Gibson, Killearn Lakes,
Miccosukee, Iamonia, Calvary, Moccasin Gap, Bradfordville, Hinson,
Beachton and Metcalf.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8400 3067 8401 3066 8401 3051 8408
      3057 8449 3069 8439 3069 8438 3071 8438
      3076 8434 3076 8414 3071 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 268DEG 9KT 3068 8415 3060 8432

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY