Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
252 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...

A shield of showers and storms is currently moving into the
Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama this afternoon. Most of
this activity will continue lifting northward through the western
parts of our area with scattered bands of showers and storms
farther east. Meanwhile, another vort max will move northward into
the western Panhandle and southern Alabama during the overnight
hours, which could bring some scattered showers and storms again
to our western areas late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
However, severe weather chances are low. Some locally heavy
downpours cannot be ruled out given the abundantly moist airmass
in place. While rain chances taper across eastern areas tonight,
some patchy fog could develop over these areas during the
overnight hours.

On Tuesday, that aforementioned vort max stretches out and
remains in place through the day. This combined with a very
tropical airmass will result in another day of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, primarily in the afternoon.
The best rain chances appear to be across the Alabama and Georgia
counties Tuesday afternoon. Yet again, the environment appears at
least somewhat supportive of a strong to severe storm or two
Tuesday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most
of the area north of a Destin to Madison line in a Marginal Risk
of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for Tuesday.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night]...

The influx of tropical moisture from the Gulf Low from the
beginning of this week will have moved off to the northeast,
allowing us to dry out a little bit for a brief moment Wednesday
morning. A ridge of high pressure off the Florida east coast will
build in over the region with southerly flow that will contribute
to sea breeze convection during the afternoon, mainly for areas
west of the Apalachicola River. PoPs will be around 50-60% west of
the Apalachicola River and less than 40% to areas east of the
river.

Temperatures Wednesday will start in the upper 60s/low 70s area
wide and are expected to warm to the upper 80s and low 90s for the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

An upper level trough with an associated cold front will be
approaching the region during the day on Thursday, which will
increase our chances for showers and thunderstorms with PoPs
ranging from 60% in the SE Big Bend to around 90% west of the
Apalachicola River. Rain chances will decrease from west to east
as the cold front passes through the region on Friday, with a
somewhat drier air mass filling in afterwards. For the weekend,
typical summertime seabreeze convection can be expected with PoPs
around 30% for our Big Bend counties and less further inland and
to the west.

High temperatures for this term will range in the mid to upper
80s, warming to the low 90s by Sunday. Overnight lows will be
maintained in the mid to upper 60s for this term.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

Scattered thunderstorms will impact thunderstorms through the
remainder of the afternoon and early evening before diminishing.
Patchy fogs and MVFR cigs will linger overnight before VFR
conditions return by mid to late morning on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds had diminished this morning as low pressure moves further
inland into north Georgia. Light to moderate southeasterly wind
will then prevail from this afternoon through Tuesday, returning
to cautionary levels by midweek. Ahead of a cold front, winds
could pick up to advisory levels on Thursday with a frontal wind
shift and decreasing winds on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The active weather pattern continues for another day across the
area on Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected once again. A few of these storms could
become strong to briefly severe with strong wind gusts and
frequent lightning. Transport winds will remain out of the south
at 5-15 mph. Rain chances come down slightly on Wednesday, but
dispersions will increase across south central Georgia and the
eastern Florida Big Bend as mixing heights increase. Transport
winds increase on Thursday ahead of a cold front. This will lead
to high dispersions in the Florida Panhandle, but the front will
also bring numerous showers and storms yet again to the forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Over the last 24 hours, area totals of 2-3 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 5 inches have occurred over areas along and west
of the Flint River and Apalachicola River in the region. While some
rainfall this afternoon is occurring east of the areas, additional
moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected over the western half
of our region this afternoon and evening where another 1-2 inches of
rain with isolated amounts up to 4 inches could occur.

Fortunately, most of the region has been experiencing drier than
normal conditions, as a result, most of this rain has been welcome.
Modest rises are in progress on area rivers and creeks, but at this
time, the expectation is that nearly all forecast points will remain
below action stage. Localized urban flooding is possible today as
individual storm motions slow, though impacts are expected to be
minimal.

More widespread rainfall is expected across the region on Thursday,
though with enough of a break between this system and the rainfall
on Thursday, any flood concerns later in the week are limited.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  89  70  88  69 /  30  30  10  40  40
Panama City   73  85  72  85  72 /  30  30  10  50  50
Dothan        69  85  68  85  67 /  50  60  20  60  40
Albany        70  89  71  90  71 /  40  50  30  50  30
Valdosta      70  89  69  90  69 /  20  40  20  20  30
Cross City    71  90  70  90  70 /  10  30  20  20  30
Apalachicola  73  84  73  83  72 /  20  20  10  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM...Montgomery
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

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