Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
348 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY...
...NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK...

.NEAR TERM [Through Monday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening but
will decrease in coverage/strength tonight with the loss of
daytime heating. Additional convection is expected on Monday with
scattered storms and a slight increase in upper level shear could
result in a few more strong to severe storms compared to today.
SPC has included southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia in a
marginal risk (1 of 5) for tomorrow, although a strong to severe
storm will also be possible across our Florida counties. The main
threat will be damaging wind but hail and localized heavy rain
are also expected. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s
with highs on Monday in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Tuesday Night]...

A front moving through the region will help showers and
thunderstorms continue into Monday night, although coverage will
be on a decreasing trend. A weak upper level wave will move
through the southeast on Tuesday, allowing for a few to scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly across our Florida counties.
Overall, PoPs on Tuesday are higher than NBM. Expect highs in the
lower to mid 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Flow aloft becomes more zonal mid-week as high pressure dominates
at the surface. This will lead to a warming trend with highs in
the mid 90s (upper 80s along the coast) on Wednesday which will be
within a few degrees of the record. Heat indices will be fairly
close to the high temperatures and it's a good reminder that if
you are going to be outside to hydrate, wear light colored
clothing, seek shade and take breaks. These warmer conditions will
continue into mid-week, although possibly a couple of degrees
cooler across the FL counties. Rain chances increase for the
weekend as the deep layer flow becomes more southerly and a cold
front moves into the southeast on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening with
the only concerns being occasional periods of MVFR/IFR should any
thunderstorms impact area terminals. MVFR/IFR visibilities in patchy
fog can't be ruled out from 08-13z across DHN, ECP, TLH, and VLD
Monday morning, but VFR conditions will quickly return a few hours
after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...

A front will move into the southeast on Monday and we'll see
another slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow with
the better chances in the morning and overnight hours. Winds will
generally be in the 10-15kt range through the period, although
brief times of exercise caution will be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A front will move through the region Monday with drier conditions expected
Tuesday into Wednesday. An enhancement of showers and thunderstorms will
continue into this afternoon with a similar chance for tomorrow, although
the storms tomorrow could be slightly stronger. Activity will trend downward
towards the middle of the week and the focus will shift to the hot
temperatures. Patchy fog is expected tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening and again
tomorrow, with a downward trend on Tuesday. This activity will produce
locally heavy rainfall which could lead to minor flooding issues;
however, widespread flooding is not anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   65  89  68  92  68 /  10  30  20  20  10
Panama City   69  84  71  87  71 /  10  20  20  20  10
Dothan        64  90  66  91  65 /  20  40  20  10  10
Albany        66  92  68  93  66 /  20  40  20  10  10
Valdosta      64  89  67  92  66 /  20  30  30  20  10
Cross City    65  87  69  90  69 /  10  20  10  30  10
Apalachicola  69  83  71  86  71 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs/Fieux
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
403 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE TYNDALL AFB        30.03N 85.53W
05/15/2022  M49 MPH          BAY                FL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KTDR 4 SE TYNDALL AFB.

0332 PM     HAIL             1 S KINSEY              31.28N 85.35W
05/15/2022  E0.25 INCH       HOUSTON            AL   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
405 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022

FLZ016-GAZ156-152045-
Gadsden FL-Decatur GA-
405 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Gadsden
and Decatur Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greensboro, or 11 miles northwest of Quincy, moving northeast at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Quincy, Bainbridge, West Bainbridge, Chattahoochee, Greensboro,
Gretna, Attapulgus, Climax, Hanover, Ausmac, Littman, Douglas City,
Florence, Rosedale, Jamieson, Recovery, Decatur Co A/P, Laingkat,
Santa Clara and Shady Rest.

LAT...LON 3108 8438 3078 8438 3050 8453 3063 8489
      3080 8480 3080 8479 3082 8479 3084 8477
      3086 8477 3107 8466 3107 8465 3108 8464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 213DEG 6KT 3065 8476

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

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