Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
920 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022

.UPDATE...

SPC mesoanalysis shows the atmosphere over our area is pretty
worked over from the strong to severe storms that rolled through
this afternoon and evening. However, back to the west over
southwestern Alabama, there area some rather impressive supercells
that have shown capability of producing large hail. And even
farther back to our northwest, another band of showers and
thunderstorms is taking shape from about Birmingham, AL to
Hattiesburg, MS. This will be the next round of weather as we head
into the overnight. While CAPE is currently rather lackluster
with a decent bit of CIN, bulk shear is still running about 40
knots over the western half of our area, decreasing farther east.
Forecast soundings do show a possible uptick in instability late
tonight as winds come back around out of the south ahead of the
cold front. This combined with shear of 30-40 knots could help
maintain storms as they enter our area. It's a bit questionable if
these storms will be severe or not, and it's dependent on
atmosphere recovery. However, there is at least enough of a chance
to maintain the Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5)
overnight for our entire area. Gusty winds of 40-60 mph and some
hail are possible in the strongest storms.

The storms will move into southeast Alabama after midnight CT,
then move southeastward across the rest of the area through the
late night and early morning hours. The storms will gradually
weaken as they move into southwest Georgia and the Florida Big
Bend prior to daybreak. Remember to have multiple ways to receive
warnings through the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [741 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Monday]...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected again today through tonight
ahead of a cold front that will begin to pass through the CWA late
tonight into Monday morning. Some of these storms may be strong to
Marginally (1 of 5) severe with the main threats being strong wind
gusts and some hail. Most of the activity is expected to be along
and north of I-10 later this afternoon. PoPs this afternoon and
evening will range from around 45% along I-10 to nearly 60-70% in
our SE AL counties and central GA counties. As the cold front
approaches, our rain chances increase to about 80% for the GA
counties and about 60% PoPs along I-10, with lesser chances in the
SE Big Bend. Rain chances linger Monday morning but, a quick moving
shortwave, along with the cold front will push out any remaining
rain through the day, leading to clearing skies by Monday evening.
Following the frontal passage, winds will begin to pick up from the
northwest at around 10-15mph.

Temperatures tonight will cool to the mid 60s and is expected to
warm to the upper 70s to low 80s for the High on Monday.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Tuesday Night]...

The southeast US will remain in west to northwest upper flow with
ridging upstream and remaining under the influence of the east
coast trough. Surface high pressure will move from the upper
Midwest to the central Appalachians, keeping a cool northerly
component to the surface winds. Cold front will be well east with
a cool and dry airmass filtering in from the north. Highs will be
in the 70s Tuesday with lows in the upper 40s to 50s, which will
be short lived heading into the long term.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Another cold front makes a run at the southeast US Wednesday into
Thursday but stalls and moves up and over strengthening upper
ridging setting up over the south and Gulf of Mexico. Easterly
surface flow around high pressure to the north becomes
southeasterly towards the weekend which will help increase
moisture advection off the Gulf. As the upper ridge sets up and
thickness values increase, highs reaching 90 is a distinct
possibility this weekend with little chances for rainfall.

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]

A line of showers and thunderstorms stretches from near VLD to
TLH back to near ECP, moving E/SE. Some of these storms could
contain hail and gusty winds of 30-40 kt. Some leftover showers
remain back near ABY and DHN. Another round of showers and storms
will move into the area overnight, arriving around DHN, ECP, and
ABY around 05-07z, progressing southeastward again through TLH and
VLD late tonight prior to 12z. Cigs at DHN may lower to IFR, but
most other sites will see low-end MVFR cigs through the overnight.
Cigs will begin rising late Monday morning over from west to east
with VFR conditions expected by the afternoon.

.MARINE...

A cold front will move across the Gulf Waters Monday bringing with
it a chance for thunderstorms and stronger winds and seas. Exercise
caution is expected in waters west of Mexico Beach Monday afternoon
then advisory conditions through all waters Monday night and early
Tuesday. Winds and seas will remain elevated through the end of
the work week as high pressure creates a strong pressure gradient
over the northeast Gulf. Caution to advisory conditions can be
expected through Friday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms look to be contained mainly along and
north of I-10 today through tonight. Tonight, precip chances become
more widespread, though rainfall totals remain light (generally
around 0.5" or less). Tomorrow, dispersion values are forecast to be
high and generally above 75 for much of the afternoon. Transwinds
will increase from the northwest tomorrow afternoon to 15-20kts.
Precip chances look to decrease rapidly through the morning and into
the afternoon.

.HYDROLOGY...

An inch or less of rainfall is expected through Monday, the
heavier side of this range will fall in southeast Alabama and
southern Georgia, before the cold front swings through taking the
rain chances with it. There is a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall today in those same areas so isolated higher amounts
cannot be ruled out. Beyond Monday, no meaningful rainfall is
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   67  83  53  76  49 /  70  40   0   0   0
Panama City   67  80  55  75  54 /  60  30   0   0   0
Dothan        63  76  49  72  46 /  70  20   0   0   0
Albany        64  79  50  72  46 /  60  30   0   0   0
Valdosta      67  81  53  73  48 /  70  50   0   0   0
Cross City    67  81  55  77  50 /  40  30   0   0   0
Apalachicola  67  79  56  75  56 /  50  30   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Young
NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
757 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S FOREST MEADOWS PARK 30.52N 84.28W
04/17/2022                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON NORTH MERIDIAN ROAD SOUTH OF
            MACLAY ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
837 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HEADLAND                31.35N 85.35W
04/17/2022                   HENRY              AL   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREE DOWN CAUSING POWER OUTAGES NEAR
            HEADLAND.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE MOUNT PLEASANT     30.69N 84.65W
04/17/2022                   GADSDEN            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN IN THE 3400 BLOCK OF HUTCHINSON
            FERRY ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
907 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N WAKULLA             30.25N 84.23W
04/17/2022                   WAKULLA            FL   UTILITY COMPANY

            FALLEN TREES OR LIMBS RESULTED IN A POWER
            OUTAGE NEAR SAVANNAH ROAD AND WOODVILLE
            HIGHWAY.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1202 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022

ALZ068-FLZ007-009-180530-
Geneva AL-Holmes FL-North Walton FL-
1202 AM CDT Mon Apr 18 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Geneva,
northwestern Walton and western Holmes Counties through 1230 AM
CDT...

At 1202 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Florala, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
De Funiak Springs, Union, Liberty, Ponce De Leon, Cluster Springs,
Gaskin, Cerrogordo, Darlington, Arrant Settlement, Glendale, Center
Ridge, Hickory Hill, New Harmony, Piney Grove, Caney Creek, Gordon,
Fox Hill, Leonia, Sand Hill and Barker Store.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8626 3100 8621 3099 8619 3100 8619
      3107 8596 3089 8585 3071 8593 3080 8630
TIME...MOT...LOC 0502Z 275DEG 29KT 3088 8621

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

21-WD

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