River Flood Warning 17, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
636 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Sunday]

A dry air mass will support clear skies for the next 24 hours.
This will also eliminate any risk of early morning fog, both this
morning and Sunday morning. The main concern will be gusty west-
northwest winds from late this morning until sunset. Peak gusts
for the day could reach near 30 knots. Winds will quickly go calm
around or soon after sunset this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [346 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A band of mid-level clouds that passed across the service area in
recent hours marks the passage of a reinforcing cold front. In its
wake, strong and gusty west-northwest winds will develop this
morning in the hours after sunrise, once the deepening mixed layer
can tap into the surge of wind behind the front. Peak wind gusts
of 30 to 35 mph can be expected areawide today.

Gradients will relax this evening, and surface winds will decouple
soon after sunset. Clear skies, calm winds, and dry air will
support excellent radiational cooling. Lows in the upper 30s and
lower 40s will be common away from the immediate coast. A light
frost is possible in the coldest spots, but air temps of 37F or
less should be highly localized, and the dry air mass will keep
any frost quite light.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

High pressure begins to shift off to the east on Sunday, bringing
a return to southerly flow across our area. This will help bring
back warmer temperatures with highs climbing back into the upper
half of the 70s on Sunday and into the lower 80s by Monday. Dry
air will slowly erode through the day, and winds will be lighter
than recent days. Likewise, lows will rebound back to the upper
40s to mid-50s.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Upper-level ridging remains largely in place through much of the
week, though the flow does become more zonal heading into next
weekend. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic
will keep south to southeast flow over our area, bringing warm,
moist air. This will allow temperatures to continue warming into
the upcoming week. Highs will reach the middle to upper 80s during
the middle of the week with lows returning to the 60s.

Our next chance of rain arrives Wednesday night and continues into
the end of the week. This is due to a couple shortwaves riding
along through the upper flow with a cold front that originates
from a low pressure system that will move into southern and
eastern Canada. There are some discrepancies in the models about
whether the front cleanly sweeps through our area or gets hung up
and stalls late next week into next weekend. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day, beginning Wednesday
night, but as of right now, the severe weather threat appears
minimal.

.MARINE...

Breezy northwest winds and 5 to 7 foot seas will gradually subside
heading into this evening. As high pressure moves overhead then
off to our east, winds will shift around out of the east to
southeast through much of the upcoming week. Winds will generally
remain around 15 knots through the early part of the week before
increasing as the pressure gradient tightens toward the middle of
the week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning will again be in effect today for Panhandle
districts west of the Apalachicola River, except for Gulf County.
The Red Flag Warning is due to strong winds of 15-20 mph, low
humidity of 23-38 percent, and dry fuels represented by Energy
Release Component (ERC) values of 26 or greater. Outside the Red
Flag Warning areas, strong winds and marginally low relative
humidity will be a concern, but higher fuel moisture values
preclude any warnings. Given the strong winds and a deeply mixed
layer this afternoon, dispersion values will be maxed out well in
excess of 100. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged today.

A much lighter southerly wind on Sunday will start to return a
moister air mass to the coast, but inland areas north of I-10
will see RH drop to near or well below 25 percent. On Monday,
southerly flow will continue, and a moistening trend will spread
further inland into Alabama and Georgia districts.

.HYDROLOGY...

Minor flooding continues along parts of the Apalachicola and
Ochlockonee Rivers. It will take about another day for the
Apalachicola to crest, but the Ochlockonee is cresting soon. The
Aucilla and parts of the Flint River may reach minor flood over
the coming days.

Rainfall totals over the next week will be relatively light -
generally only around 0.25-0.50 inches, but this ultimately
depends on the strength and passage of the next system. Right now,
additional riverine or flash flooding concerns are not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   68  40  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   67  48  74  58  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        64  41  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        64  39  77  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  40  76  47  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    67  40  76  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  67  49  71  58  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Jackson-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM...Young
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Young