Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
235 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

A much cooler and drier airmass will advect into the region today
behind a cold front. A fairly large temperature gradient is expected
this afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 50s near Georgetown
in Quitman county to the mid 70s near Suwannee in Dixie county.
Northwest winds will be occasionally gusty by mid-morning with gusts
of 20-25 mph possible, particularly across the western half of the
area.

For tonight, winds will diminish but still remain around 5 mph as
the center of the surface high pressure remains west of the area.
Clear skies and a dry airmass will still allow for decent
radiational cooling despite the slightly elevated winds with
overnight lows ranging from the mid 30s to near 40 across the area.
The official forecast used a blend of NBM and CONSMOS for low
temperatures over land. Given that the winds are not expected to go
calm and the airmass remains quite dry tonight, we kept frost out of
the grids for now for tonight, and we'll let the dayshift take
another look at it.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

A dry stretch of weather is in store through Monday, with the next
chance of showers not until at least Tuesday of next week. Highs
moderate from the 60s on Wednesday to around 70 on Thursday, and
into the upper 70s to lower 80s this weekend, then into the mid-80s
early next week. One more breezy day on Wednesday with Northwest
winds gusting up to 20 mph. Chilly mornings are on tap into the
weekend. In particular, the dry air mass and light winds should
allow low temperatures to dip into the 30s on Thursday and Friday
mornings, with some areas seeing patchy frost. Thursday looks to
be the coldest morning, with the potential for a freeze (temps at
or below 32F) for portions of the tri-state away from the coast.
The greatest confidence in a freeze is roughly northwest of an
Albany-Dothan line.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with
mostly clear skies. Breezy north-northwest winds are expected to
develop by mid-morning with gusts near 20 knots expected for DHN and
ECP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

A strong cold frontal passage this morning will lead to widespread
Small Craft Advisory conditions through Wednesday morning, with
seas building to around 6 feet offshore. A return to more tranquil
boating conditions is expected on Thursday and Friday, as high
pressure builds over the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

The main concern remains elevated fire danger this afternoon due to
a very dry airmass moving into the area coupled with dry fuels in
some areas and the potential for gusty winds. Currently, the
greatest fire weather risk appears to be across portions of the
Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama where red flag conditions
are expected. On Wednesday and Thursday, the very dry airmass will
continue across the area, but winds are forecast to be lighter.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2022

A dry stretch of weather is in store over the next week. Portions
of the Tri-State region remain in moderate to severe drought, with
no relief in sight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  40  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  42  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        61  36  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        62  37  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  39  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    74  40  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  44  66  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ007>014-108-112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ730-750-
     752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LF