Gale Warning 5, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
153 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]
Not expecting as much low cloudiness overnight tonight as low-
level flow begins to increase ahead of next weather system. Low-
level jet will increase enough to support llws at western
terminals around sunrise before low-level inversion breaks. By mid
to late morning, winds will ramp up, with gusts well into the 20s
by early afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1102 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Today will be a transition day as steady northwest upper level flow
from the last few days gives way to westerly flow aloft ahead of our
next weather system. At the surface, a weak surface high that's been
in place is anticipated to shift east. Wind direction/speed will be
dependent on location this afternoon with southeast Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle seeing increasing southerly flow this afternoon
while the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia see mostly light
southeasterly flow through the day, though it will increase later in
the afternoon as the surface high shifts further east. Warmer
conditions are expected this afternoon with widespread high
temperatures in the mid 80s.

Southerly flow continues increasing overnight Tuesday with breezy
conditions like by Wednesday morning, especially across our western
zones of southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Fog is
possible tonight, but with increasing southerly flow it will likely
not be as widespread as we're seeing this morning.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...

Windy conditions are expected on Wednesday as the gradient
tightens in response to an approaching low pressure system. A
wind advisory may be required for portions of the area, primarily
near the coast and across SE Alabama and SW Georgia Wednesday
afternoon. The strong onshore flow will allow a surge of moisture
to push inland across the area with dewpoints rising into the mid
to upper 60s areawide. High temperatures on Wednesday are forecast
in the low to mid 80s.

A potent line of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast to
push into the area from the west Wednesday night and continue
slowly eastward as it gradually weakens into the day on Thursday.
A very strong low level jet of 50-55+ knots is expected with this
system, particularly across our western zones. While instability
looks to be a potential limiting factor, the strong onshore flow
and resulting moisture surge may be enough to sustain strong to
severe storms well into our area. The primary threats with this
system include damaging winds, tornadoes, and isolated heavy
rainfall. Some damaging winds to 70 mph and strong tornadoes will
also be possible across SE Alabama and the FL Panhandle Wednesday
night. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of SE AL and
the FL Panhandle in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) for severe
weather Wednesday Night. Areas further east are encompassed in a
Slight Risk for severe weather (Level 2 out of 5) between the Day
2 and Day 3 outlooks. Although the area is outlooked in both the
Day 2 and 3 outlooks, this is just an artifact of the cutoff time
of 12z between the products. Both are encompassing the one event
spanning Wednesday night into Thursday.

The timing of the event is expected to be generally around 3am
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning through sunrise for areas
west of the Flint River/Apalachicola River. This will likely be
the period of greatest severe threat. The line is expected to
continue eastward Thursday morning as it gradually weakens. Some
regeneration may be possible across portions of SW Georgia on
Thursday with daytime heating if the front is lagging behind a
bit. If this happens, some of those storms could be strong to
severe as well.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible with this system
with isolated higher amounts possible. These may cause some minor
flooding issues if they occur in urban or already saturated areas.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to stall to the south of
our area over Central Florida Thursday night into Friday. The
passage of this front will knock high temperatures back into the
mid 70s for a few days with low temperatures in the 50s. Over the
weekend an approaching shortwave is expected to lift the front
back northward as a warm front, bringing another round of showers
and thunderstorms to the area. The details are a bit hard to parse
out for now, but be on the lookout for potential minor flooding
and/or strong to severe storms with this system as well.

.MARINE...

Strong onshore flow ahead of a cold front is expected to create
hazardous marine conditions over the next few days. Winds and seas
will increase Wednesday through early Thursday morning, with
frequent gusts to gale force possible west of Apalachicola. Winds
will begin to subside Thursday, but seas will take a bit longer to
fall in the wake of the system. Strong thunderstorms will be
possible with this system Wednesday night through Thursday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Humidity will be on the increase through the period ahead of a
frontal system moving through Wednesday night. The increasing
southerly flow will taper fire weather concerns somewhat on Tuesday,
but concerns will grow on Wednesday as very strong southerly winds
overspread the region. Widespread sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph
are expected with frequent gusts to 30 mph.
Isolated areas of 35 to 40 mph gusts can't be ruled out. This will
create very high dispersions across the entire region, with the
highest confidence and values across southeast Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle.

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor coastal flooding will be possible Wednesday into Thursday as
strong onshore flow is expected ahead of an approaching cold
front.

The Aucilla River at Lamont remains in minor flood this morning
but is forecast to fall below flood stage later today. Several
other rivers and streams remain elevated in action stage,
particularly across the FL Panhandle and Big Bend where the
heavier rains have fallen over the past several weeks.

Further rises are expected along the Suwannee River as routed flow
from the last system continues to make its way down the basin.

Two systems over the next week are forecast to bring a combined 1
to 4 inches of rainfall to the region, with isolated higher
amounts possible. The first system Wednesday night through
Thursday is forecast to produce a widespread inch or so across the
area, but the second system over the weekend has the potential for
a few inches of rainfall. Depending where this rainfall (and
especially the isolated higher amounts) falls, new flooding will
be possible and ongoing flooding may be prolonged and/or
exacerbated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   56  81  66  76  58 /   0   0  40 100  20
Panama City   62  78  66  76  58 /   0   0  80  80  10
Dothan        57  84  65  79  51 /   0   0  90  60   0
Albany        59  86  65  79  54 /   0   0  60  90  10
Valdosta      58  85  65  77  59 /   0   0  20  90  20
Cross City    58  84  66  80  62 /   0   0  10  80  60
Apalachicola  61  75  66  74  60 /   0   0  50  90  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     through Friday evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-
     South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Wednesday to 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ Friday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Friday for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to
     Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
     Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to
     Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield