Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
311 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]...

Moist southeasterly low-level flow will remain in place through at
least Saturday which will continue to fuel a wet pattern across the
forecast area. Light flow aloft will also contribute to slow moving
storms which will help increase the threat for flooding across the
area as rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour lead to localized areas
of flooding.

For the remainder of this afternoon and into the early evening,
shower and storm activity will continue to develop and mature. The
slow moving nature of some of the activity has been quite apparent
today with some radar estimates of rainfall this afternoon already
pushing 2 to 3 inches in localized areas. This trend will continue
into the evening hours. The severe threat is anticipated to remain
on the low side, but the stronger push of the east coast sea breeze,
now oriented roughly north to south along I-75, could provide an
opportunity for stronger gusts across the Big Bend and southern
Georgia this afternoon.

Activity will generally be slow to wind down this evening and it is
expected to push into AL/GA this afternoon and evening. Late
tonight, as most activity is diminishing inland, we'll likely see
redevelopment of storms along our marine zones and coastal
communities. The main concerns with this activity will again be
flooding. We saw an example of this potential this morning with a
station in Mexico Beach picking up around 4.5 inches of rain. These
amounts can't be ruled out in the storms that form late tonight and
early Saturday morning along the coast. The primary concern would be
storms developing/moving over regions which have received heavy rain
the last few days, and over urban areas. Folks in these locations
should be mindful overnight and into Saturday morning if they'll be
on the roads and come across any flooded roadways.

Similar to today, expect nocturnal/morning convection to gradually
push inland as widespread showers and storms again develop Saturday
afternoon. Rain chances will be high and around 60-80%.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Sunday Night]...

A positively-tilted upper level trough will be over the Ohio and
Lower MIssissippi Valleys through this period with a ridge over
Florida and the southeastern states. Surface high pressure will move
in from the northeast, but low level winds will remain onshore.
Precipitable water values will remain high in the 1.8-2 inch range.
A wavy quasi-stationary front and outflow boundaries will trigger
diurnally driven numerous showers and storms with coastal areas
under threat in the morning through early afternoon and convection
spreading inland through the afternoon Sunday. Lows will mainly be
in the lower 70s with highs Sunday in the upper 80s to around 90.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

There will be little change in the long wave pattern though
Wednesday. After that time, the upper trough to our west will
amplify. Like last night's runs, the Euro has a blockier pattern and
hold the trough axis to our west while the GFS is weaker and more
progressive moving the trough closer to us by week's end. A weak
surface pressure pattern will be in place all week with a stalled
front near or just south of the coast most of the week. PoPs will be
somewhat lower on Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing once again
later in the week as we come under increasing influence of the
troughing. Daytime temperatures will be at or above normal early in
the week before dropping several degrees below normal for Thursday
and Friday due to increased cloud cover and convective coverage.
Minimum temps will be near normal in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions will prevail through the
afternoon/evening with the primary aviation hazards being low
ceilings and visibility restrictions due to widespread showers
and thunderstorms. IFR conditions remain possible in the stronger
storms. For tonight, shower and storm activity will gradually
diminish after midnight. Widespread low ceilings and possibly fog
are expected to develop at inland terminals, especially across
AL/GA at DHN/ABY. LIFR conditions are possible after 08z and could
last into 13/14z Saturday. Further south near the coast, these
restrictions are less likely, but scattered showers and storms
could begin to develop after 09z, bringing MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside of thunderstorms, we will continue to see rather benign
marine conditions with light winds and low seas for the weekend into
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moist conditions in place will keep fire weather concerns low
through the weekend. Only concerns on the fire weather front will
be low dispersions and increased chance for fog in the overnight
hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Most of the forecast areas is under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall through the weekend. While most areas will be fine,
localized 3- to 5-inch totals will be possible and this would be
enough to cause flash flooding concerns as weak steering flow will
result in slow moving storms with heavy rain.&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  89  73  89  73 /  50  70  30  70  40
Panama City   75  88  74  89  74 /  60  80  40  70  40
Dothan        72  87  71  87  71 /  50  70  30  80  40
Albany        72  87  72  87  73 /  50  70  30  80  40
Valdosta      72  90  72  89  72 /  60  70  30  70  30
Cross City    72  91  72  91  73 /  60  70  40  70  30
Apalachicola  75  87  75  87  76 /  60  70  50  70  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Wool

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
406 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

FLZ028-128-022045-
Inland Taylor FL-Coastal Taylor FL-
406 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Taylor
County through 445 PM EDT...

At 406 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles north of Steinhatchee, moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Salem, Carbur, Howell Place, Clara and Athena.

LAT...LON 2970 8349 2971 8349 2971 8350 2972 8350
      2994 8363 3003 8337 2989 8337 2989 8335
      2982 8335 2982 8332 2979 8332
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 072DEG 5KT 2986 8343

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
324 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

ALZ066-067-022100-
Dale AL-Henry AL-
324 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Dale
and southwestern Henry Counties through 400 PM CDT...

At 324 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Headland, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Abbeville, Headland, Newville, Haleburg, Bells Crossroads, Tumbleton,
Echo, Capps, Grandberry Crossroads, Snells Crossroads, Murphy
Station, Headland Municipal A/P, Dancey, Ward Bridge, Bertha and
Balkum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3141 8515 3131 8528 3139 8539 3149 8553
      3162 8532
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 135DEG 9KT 3141 8529

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
433 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

FLZ028-029-034-128-134-022130-
Coastal Dixie FL-Inland Taylor FL-Inland Dixie FL-Coastal Taylor FL-
Lafayette FL-
433 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern
Lafayette, Dixie and southeastern Taylor Counties through 530 PM
EDT...

At 432 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 15 miles north of Steinhatchee to Fowlers
Bluff. These storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cross City, Steinhatchee, Horseshoe Point, Suwannee, Horseshoe Beach,
Pinland, Tennille, Shamrock, Jug Island, Clara, Cross City Airport,
Shired Island, Dekle Beach, Jonesboro, Jack Lee Island, Salem, San
Pedro Junction, Cedar Island, Fish Creek and Cooks Hammock.

LAT...LON 2940 8323 2949 8341 2965 8345 2974 8358
      3002 8376 3005 8321 2948 8298 2947 8298
      2946 8300 2943 8302 2940 8302 2937 8307
      2934 8307 2933 8309 2934 8310 2932 8312
      2932 8314 2930 8316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 105DEG 4KT 2989 8347 2937 8303

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
502 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

FLZ019-028-029-GAZ159-160-022130-
Inland Taylor FL-Madison FL-Lafayette FL-Brooks GA-Lowndes GA-
502 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Lafayette, northeastern Taylor, Madison, southwestern Lowndes and
southeastern Brooks Counties through 530 PM EDT...

At 502 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Lake Park to 10 miles west
of Mayo. Movement was northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Perry, Lake Park, Greenville, Lee, Pinland, Hamburg,
Buckville, Pinetta, Lovett, Nankin, Empress, Clyattville, Foley,
Hanson, Perry-Foley Airport, Hampton Springs, Shady Grove, Moseley
Hall and Chancey.

LAT...LON 3063 8322 3063 8329 3062 8327 3059 8326
      3055 8326 3052 8324 3049 8325 3047 8323
      2997 8329 3002 8367 3003 8369 3058 8362
      3058 8360 3064 8360 3064 8361 3074 8360
      3068 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 114DEG 13KT 3064 8330 3007 8335

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
524 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

FLZ028-034-128-134-022215-
Coastal Dixie FL-Inland Taylor FL-Inland Dixie FL-Coastal Taylor FL-
524 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Dixie and
southeastern Taylor Counties through 615 PM EDT...

At 524 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cross City, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Steinhatchee, Cross City, Horseshoe Point, Suwannee, Horseshoe Beach,
Tennille, Shamrock, Hines, Jonesboro, Clara, Shired Island and Jena.

LAT...LON 2940 8323 2943 8330 2951 8341 2967 8345
      2968 8344 2968 8342 2971 8343 2975 8342
      2982 8338 2982 8319 2940 8303 2937 8307
      2934 8307 2934 8310 2932 8312 2932 8314
      2931 8314 2929 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 342DEG 10KT 2965 8323

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
526 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

FLZ019-028-029-022215-
Inland Taylor FL-Madison FL-Lafayette FL-
526 PM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Lafayette, northeastern Taylor and Madison Counties through 615 PM
EDT...

At 526 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Lake Park to 11 miles east
of Perry. Movement was west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Perry, Greenville, Lee, Ebb, Hamburg, Buckville, Pinetta,
Eridu, Lovett, Foley, Hanson, Perry-Foley Airport, Hampton Springs,
Sirmans, Shady Grove, Iddo, Moseley Hall, Chancey and Secotan.

LAT...LON 3001 8328 3005 8373 3008 8379 3031 8382
      3032 8379 3038 8381 3038 8376 3043 8372
      3052 8373 3054 8370 3054 8367 3055 8367
      3055 8364 3058 8360 3065 8361 3064 8334
      3062 8327 3052 8324 3047 8324 3047 8323
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 091DEG 10KT 3061 8332 3009 8339

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD