Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
253 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Monday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to prevail through the
afternoon and evening today, especially along and south of I-10.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected diminish overnight  We
will be under the influence of upper level ridging as we head into
the holiday which will continue the southerly/southwesterly low-
level flow that has been driving our daily showers and
thunderstorms. PoPs will be highest on Monday (around 60%-70%) along
and north of I-10 during the afternoon and evening. These showers
and thunderstorms pose a risk for heavy downpours, gusty winds, and
frequent lightning. Temperatures will be seasonal in the low 90s but
the added humidity will have heat indices above 100 degrees.
Overnight lows will be in the low 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Tuesday Night]...

Upper level ridging will build across the region during the short
term with the center of the ridge north of the CWA. Initial
northeast upper level winds will become more easterly. While the
ridge builds in across the CWA, the tri-state area will still see
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Expect highs in the lower
to mid 90s with lows in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The upper level ridge will continue to strengthen across the region
on Wednesday and may help to keep PoPs slightly below what we have
seen the past few days, though still in the 40-60% range. We'll have
to monitor this pattern in terms of MCS potential though and that
would obviously affect PoPs. The potential for showers and
thunderstorms will continue each day and may be enhanced again
over the weekend as a trough sweeps across the eastern CONUS. With
the upper level ridge in place, high temperatures will trend
upward with more locations seeing the mid 90s mid to late week.
This may also result in heat indices in the mid to upper 100s,
with the higher values across the Big Bend region. Lows will
remain in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

Scattered showers and thunderstorms can affect all terminals this
evening but mainly, ECP, TLH, and VLD terminals will have the
highest chances through the evening. Skies will be clearing
overnight with the potential for shallow fog development as activity
will quiet down but is expected to pick up again on Monday with more
convection possible along and north of I-10. SCT to BKN decks are
expected during the afternoon hours region wide with MVFR/IFR cigs
during thunderstorms, otherwise VFR should prevail.

&&

.MARINE...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day with the best
chances in the morning hours for convection over the marine area.
Winds will be variable over the next few days with speeds around
10 knots or less. Winds may increase to around 15 knots next
weekend. Seas will be 2 feet or less through the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moist conditions will continue through Monday, with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. Winds will
generally be light, outside of gusty and erratic winds associated
with thunderstorms. Very low dispersion values will be possible
across the region Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day this week. While
river flooding is not anticipated, localized heavy rain may lead to
some areas of isolated flooding, especially in poor drainage and
urban areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  91  75  92  75 /  30  70  30  60  20
Panama City   76  86  77  90  77 /  40  50  30  50  20
Dothan        73  88  73  90  74 /  20  70  30  60  20
Albany        74  90  75  93  76 /  30  70  30  50  20
Valdosta      73  90  73  92  74 /  30  70  30  60  20
Cross City    74  90  74  93  74 /  20  70  40  60  30
Apalachicola  77  86  77  88  78 /  30  50  30  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Fieux