Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2022
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 20, 2022, 1:55 PM EDT for 22 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 20, 2022, 1:55 PM EDT (17:55 UTC)
- Expired
- May 20, 2022, 6:17 PM EDT
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 22 counties
Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Chippewa County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Mackinac County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 19 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 50%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 40%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 80%
Warnings issued inside it
11 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2:11 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Benzie, Grand Traverse, Leelanau | 49 min |
| May 20, 2:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Charlevoix | 26 min |
| May 20, 2:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Antrim, Charlevoix, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska | 44 min |
| May 20, 2:52 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Cheboygan, Emmet, Mackinac | 53 min |
| May 20, 3:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Antrim, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Montmorency, Otsego | 55 min |
| May 20, 3:37 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Chippewa, Mackinac | 53 min |
| May 20, 3:38 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | APX | Antrim, Otsego | 22 min |
| May 20, 3:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Cheboygan, Montmorency, Presque Isle | 50 min |
| May 20, 3:55 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | APX | Montmorency, Otsego | 24 min |
| May 20, 4:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alpena, Presque Isle | 38 min |
| May 20, 4:36 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | APX | Presque Isle | 24 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 82 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -240 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1211 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 121 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 195 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
443
WWUS20 KWNS 201752
SEL2
SPC WW 201752
MIZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-LSZ000-202300-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Lower Michigan
Lake Huron
Lake Michigan
Lake Superior
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
700 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over Lake Michigan will track
quickly eastward this afternoon across northern Lower Michigan. The
stronger cells along the line will pose a risk of locally damaging
wind gusts and large hail. An isolated tornado or two is also
possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles southwest of
Houghton Lake MI to 35 miles east northeast of Sault Ste Marie MI.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 251...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...HartSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 1:32 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Benzie, Charlevoix and 21 more | 2 hr |
| May 20, 3:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Montmorency, Otsego, Presque Isle | 113 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2022Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.