Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2022

Mesoscale Discussion 933

May 27, 202212 counties in North Carolina; 49 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 27, 2022, 6:01 AM EDT for 12 counties in North Carolina; 49 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 27, 2022, 6:01 AM EDT (10:01 UTC)
Expired: May 27, 2022, 8:00 AM EDT
In force: 119 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch likely
Chance of a watch: 80%

All 61 counties

Alamance County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Durham County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Albemarle County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 136 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 276May 27, 6:20 AM EDT

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 00:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 10 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -46 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 596 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 205 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 245 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 26, 8:32 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alexander, Cabarrus, Catawba, Davidson, Davie, Forsyth and 8 more	118 min
May 27, 5:00 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anson, Cabarrus, Davidson, Davie, Gaston, Guilford and 11 more	2 hr
May 27, 6:24 AM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alamance, Anson, Caswell, Chatham, Davidson, Durham and 25 more	8 hr
May 27, 8:13 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamance, Caswell, Chatham, Durham, Franklin, Granville and 12 more	2 hr
May 27, 10:44 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Craven, Currituck and 14 more	91 min
May 27, 10:59 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Edgecombe, Halifax, Nash, Northampton, Warren, Wilson	91 min
May 27, 11:50 AM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven and 13 more	4 hr
May 27, 2:21 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bladen, Chatham, Columbus, Cumberland, Duplin, Durham and 20 more	84 min
May 27, 3:38 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alleghany, Ashe, Surry	97 min
May 27, 4:26 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamance, Bladen, Caswell, Chatham, Columbus, Cumberland and 24 more	2 hr
May 27, 5:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Edgecombe, Franklin, Halifax, Johnston, Nash, Northampton and 4 more	4 hr
May 27, 7:22 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Albemarle, Amelia, Appomattox, Arlington, Brunswick, Buckingham and 46 more	83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2022 Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2022 Every mesoscale discussion in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.