Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2022

Mesoscale Discussion 849

May 21, 202213 counties in New York

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 21, 2022, 11:32 AM EDT for 13 counties in New York. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 21, 2022, 11:32 AM EDT (15:32 UTC)
Expired: May 21, 2022, 1:30 PM EDT
In force: 118 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch: 40%

Counties Cayuga County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 121 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1074 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -136 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1231 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 164 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 246 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 21, 2:16 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Livingston, Onondaga and 7 more	2 hr
May 21, 2:47 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clinton, Franklin, St. Lawrence	118 min
May 21, 3:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Hamilton, Herkimer, Jefferson and 7 more	6 hr
May 21, 5:51 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango and 12 more	114 min
May 21, 6:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung, Erie and 8 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2022 Every mesoscale discussion in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.