Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2022
Mesoscale Discussion 821
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 18, 2022, 8:17 PM CDT for 5 counties in Kansas; 15 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 118 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 18, 2022, 8:17 PM CDT (01:17 UTC)
- Expired
- May 18, 2022, 10:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 118 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...severe thunderstorm watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
Counties Barber County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Harper County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Logan County, OK, Major County, OK, Noble County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK
The radar
The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3179 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -78 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1509 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 46 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 130 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.5
- Supercell composite
- 7.5
The text
As transmitted.
412
ACUS11 KWNS 190117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190117
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-190315-
Mesoscale Discussion 0821
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0817 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022
Areas affected...northwestern and north-central OK...far southern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 190117Z - 190315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Early stages of an MCS are underway across southwest KS
and far southeastern CO early this evening. The propensity for
severe gusts to accompany this MCS will likely increase through the
mid evening within the eastern half of severe thunderstorm watch
#239. The risk for severe gusts will subsequently move into
northwest and north-central OK late this evening into the overnight.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows the development of a MCS straddling
the KS/CO border to the west of Garden City, KS as of 0115 UTC.
Model guidance has been consistent in showing this thunderstorm
complex moving east-southeastward this evening into northwest OK and
adjacent counties of southern KS. The 00 UTC Dodge City, KS raob
showed moderate buoyancy (1900 J/kg MLCAPE) with a straight-line
hodograph (low-level easterlies beneath 55-kt westerly flow at
250mb). As the MCS gradually encounters a more moist airmass
(surface dewpoints ranging from the low-mid 50s in a Garden City, KS
to Guymon, OK corridor), additional precipitation loading and
subsequent thunderstorm outflow will promote additional storm
development and a greater risk for severe gusts. Extrapolation of
the MCS places it near the edge of severe thunderstorm watch #239 at
04 UTC and near I-35 around 07 UTC.
..Smith/Bunting.. 05/19/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 35930005 36899941 37659939 37429817 37209706 36669650
36209652 35879699 35849816 35889954 35930005SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 9:47 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Chautauqua, Comanche, Cowley, Harper, Kiowa and 1 more | 7 hr |
| May 19, 12:31 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Comanche | 59 min |
| May 19, 1:34 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blaine, Dewey, Garfield, Kingfisher, Major | 56 min |
| May 19, 3:16 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Creek, Garfield, Grant, Kay, Kingfisher and 8 more | 89 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2022Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2022Every mesoscale discussion in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.