Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2022
Mesoscale Discussion 784
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2022, 12:48 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 16, 2022, 12:48 PM EDT (16:48 UTC)
- Expired
- May 16, 2022, 2:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 227
All 29 counties
Berkshire County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Cheshire County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Albany County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Essex County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Orange County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 46 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 772 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 51 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
828
ACUS11 KWNS 161649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161648
MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-161815-
Mesoscale Discussion 0784
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022
Areas affected...Eastern NY...Much of VT...Southern
NH...Western/Central MA...CT
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227...
Valid 161648Z - 161815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts
remain possible across the region this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s to lower 80s
across the region, resulting in air mass destabilization. Recent
mesoanalysis indicates little to no convective inhibition remains
over the region. The cold front is currently well west of the
region, but increasing large-scale forcing for ascent within the
broad warm-air advection regime has been enough to initiate
thunderstorms. Enough buoyancy and shear are in place to support
supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail, with
hail most likely during initial/early updraft development.
..Mosier/Grams.. 05/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...
LAT...LON 42787485 44037465 44487360 44277259 43787202 42927180
41747194 41167318 41407425 42787485SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 12:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Capitol Planning Region, Northwest Hills Planning Region | 7 hr |
| May 16, 1:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region | 6 hr |
| May 16, 5:23 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 97 min | |
| May 16, 5:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region | 5 hr |
| May 16, 6:43 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 62 min | |
| May 16, 11:22 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Madison and 7 more | 83 min |
| May 16, 11:23 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware and 15 more | 5 hr |
| May 16, 12:01 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Kings, New York, Orange, Putnam, Queens and 3 more | 119 min |
| May 16, 2:43 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Chenango, Columbia, Delaware, Fulton, Greene and 13 more | 92 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2022Mesoscale Discussions in Connecticut, 2022Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2022Every mesoscale discussion in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.