Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2022

Mesoscale Discussion 710

May 10, 20224 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2022, 4:57 PM EDT for 4 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 63 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 10, 2022, 4:57 PM EDT (20:57 UTC)
Expired
May 10, 2022, 6:00 PM EDT
In force
63 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Baraga County, MI, Houghton County, MI, Iron County, MI, Marquette County, MI

The radar

The Marquette radar (KMQT), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 234 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2022-05-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 495 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2022-05-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 171 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
495 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-361 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
875 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
171 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
188 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

392 
ACUS11 KWNS 102058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102057 
MIZ000-102200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0710
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

Areas affected...Parts of Upper Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 102057Z - 102200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail will be possible across
parts of Upper Michigan this afternoon. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from MQT shows a few elevated
supercell structures spreading east-northeastward across portions of
Upper Michigan this afternoon. 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow
(per regional VWP data) is contributing to favorable deep-layer
shear for the maintenance of these supercell structures, and modest
diurnal heating amid lower 60s surface dewpoints could support
pockets of surface-based inflow. While isolated large hail is the
primary concern, any storms that can root in the boundary layer
could pose a locally damaging wind gust risk. Watch issuance is not
expected.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 05/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...

LAT...LON   46568707 46328736 46158799 46148842 46168907 46388936
            46698934 46968888 47038851 47068808 46958761 46568707

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2022Every mesoscale discussion in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.