Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2022
Mesoscale Discussion 621
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 2, 2022, 1:20 PM CDT for 7 counties in Arkansas; 7 counties in Oklahoma; 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 2, 2022, 1:20 PM CDT (18:20 UTC)
- Expired
- May 2, 2022, 3:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 31 counties
Hempstead County, AR, Howard County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Collin County, TX, Delta County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Morris County, TX, Rains County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Titus County, TX, Wood County, TX
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 198 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1120 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -37 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 670 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 160 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 303 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.6
- Supercell composite
- 3.7
The text
As transmitted.
706
ACUS11 KWNS 021820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021820
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-022045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0621
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022
Areas affected...southeast OK...far northeast TX...parts of
southwest MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 021820Z - 022045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The risk for isolated severe storms may increase this
afternoon. Trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convective overturning across
the area, visible satellite loops show a gradual transition from
stable billow clouds to shallow horizontal convective rolls,
indicating that the boundary layer is gradually destabilizing to the
south of a northward-lifting warm front. As surface pressure falls
continue over north-central OK, upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints should
continue spreading northward in conjunction with pockets of diurnal
heating -- supporting 2000-2500 J/kg pre-convective MLCAPE. Regional
VWP data shows strongly veering flow in the 0-3-km layer owing to
continued warm advection along the axis of a 40-45 knot low-level
jet -- which is resulting in 250-350 m2/s2 boundary-layer SRH.
While the environment will be favorable for discrete supercells
capable of all hazards this afternoon, weak large-scale ascent
characterized by neutral midlevel height tendencies and a lack of
appreciable low-level convergence casts uncertainty on storm
development and maintenance. With that said, high-resolution
guidance continues to depict at least isolated convective
development along antecedent outflow boundaries. Trends will
continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance.
..Weinman/Hart.. 05/02/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33039688 33379693 34199686 34449662 34519632 34719575
34899439 34669374 34119356 33639351 33189371 32639570
32699649 33039688SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crittenden | 2 hr |
| May 2, 5:08 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Garland, Logan, Montgomery, Perry, Polk, Saline and 4 more | 67 min |
| May 2, 5:27 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Clark, Conway, Crawford, Faulkner, Franklin, Garland and 15 more | 7 hr |
| May 1, 10:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Cimarron, Texas | 2 hr |
| May 2, 1:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Craig and 29 more | 2 hr |
| May 2, 2:02 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cherokee and 45 more | 8 hr |
| May 2, 3:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Blaine, Garfield, Grant, Kingfisher, Logan and 2 more | 88 min |
| May 2, 5:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Canadian, Grady, Kay, Logan, Noble, Oklahoma and 2 more | 59 min |
| May 1, 7:57 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Eastland, Fisher, Haskell and 10 more | 93 min |
| May 1, 8:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Concho, Coryell and 23 more | 6 hr |
| May 1, 11:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dimmit, Maverick, Zavala | 113 min |
| May 1, 11:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Callahan, Comanche and 22 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2022Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2022Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2022Every mesoscale discussion in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.