Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2022
Mesoscale Discussion 511
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 17, 2022, 12:51 PM CDT for 26 counties in Texas. It was in force for 114 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 17, 2022, 12:51 PM CDT (17:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 17, 2022, 2:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 114 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 26 counties
Bandera County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Frio County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hays County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Llano County, TX, Mason County, TX, Medina County, TX, Menard County, TX, Real County, TX, Travis County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Williamson County, TX, Wilson County, TX, Zavala County, TX
The radar
The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1796 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -174 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 716 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 144 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 193 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 3.2
The text
As transmitted.
204
ACUS11 KWNS 171751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171751
TXZ000-171945-
Mesoscale Discussion 0511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022
Areas affected...South-central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 171751Z - 171945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
coming hours along a cold front across south-central Texas. A
favorable kinematic environment will support the potential for
supercells with large to very large hail.
DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-16 visible imagery reveals the location of
the surface cold front as it continues to push southeast into TX. A
couple of weak thunderstorms have already initiated off this
boundary, but have struggled to mature, quickly becoming displaced
into the cool air to the north. The anemic nature to the prior
convection is likely attributable to lingering mixed-layer
inhibition, which is gradually diminishing as temperatures continue
to slowly warm into the low to mid 80s where skies are mostly clear.
Additional cumulus towers are noted along the front in latest
visible and IR imagery, suggesting the probability for sustained
thunderstorms continues to increase. Storms will likely intensify
further in the coming hours as they move southeast into an air mass
with richer boundary layer moisture (denoted by low 70s dewpoints).
Parcel trajectories will likely deepen as cells encounter this air
mass, allowing for better realization of the elongated wind profiles
over the region. Nearly straight hodographs will support supercell
structures with eventual storm splits. The combination of moderate
instability and strong effective bulk wind shear (40-50 knots) will
support the potential for severe hail (possibly up to 2 inches in
diameter) and damaging winds. Trends will continue to be monitored,
and a watch will likely be needed as soon as sufficient storm
coverage becomes apparent.
..Moore/Hart.. 04/17/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30380021 30929992 30949941 31039876 31239791 31379754
30889697 30159711 29489749 28989835 28759911 28819991
29200023 29670036 30030037 30380021SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 7:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell and 16 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 17, 11:24 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cass, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Morris, Panola and 3 more | 3 hr |
| Apr 17, 12:29 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Camp, Cass, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Morris and 6 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 17, 1:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet and 16 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 17, 2:55 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Shelby | 3 hr |
| Apr 17, 3:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Caldwell, Comal and 12 more | 117 min |
| Apr 17, 4:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Houston, Leon and 11 more | 88 min |
| Apr 17, 5:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bexar, Frio, Medina, Uvalde, Wilson and 1 more | 93 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2022Every mesoscale discussion in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.