Mesoscale Discussion 331

Issued

Mar 23, 2022, 8:05 PM EDT (00:05 UTC)

Expired

Mar 23, 2022, 9:30 PM EDT

In force

85 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch possible

Chance of a watch

40%

The Greer radar (KGSP), 142 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 69Mar 23, 8:30 PM EDT

244 
ACUS11 KWNS 240006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240005 
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-240130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

Areas affected...portions of western SC/NC/VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 240005Z - 240130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe storms are possible over the
next 1-3 hours across western SC/NC/VA. A tornado and isolated
strong gusts are the main hazards possible with this activity in the
short term.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has increased this evening from far
western SC into western NC. These cells are developing in a weakly
unstable environment with MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg amid strong
vertical shear. In the low-levels, mid 60s F dewpoints are
supporting around 100 J/kg 3 km MLCAPE. Favorable low-level
instability and shear will support rotating cells and a short term
tornado threat may persist for a couple of hours as these cells
track toward the northeast. Large-scale ascent across the region
will remain weak as a midlevel shortwave impulse spreads northward
toward VA/WV/PA. Weakening ascent couple with boundary-layer cooling
with loss of daytime heating should limit the eastward extent and
longevity of the threat. The area is being monitored for a small,
short-duration tornado watch.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 03/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   36848082 37038056 37118026 37098013 37007989 36797989
            36378014 35958042 35158122 34718208 34588267 34588292
            34658304 34808322 35288286 36168183 36848082

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.