Mesoscale Discussion 1908

Issued

Oct 28, 2022, 9:43 AM CDT (14:43 UTC)

Expired

Oct 28, 2022, 11:45 AM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

Counties Bee County, TX, Brazoria County, TX, Calhoun County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Jackson County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Matagorda County, TX, Victoria County, TX, Wharton County, TX

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

669 
ACUS11 KWNS 281443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281443 
TXZ000-281645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1908
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022

Areas affected...the middle Texas coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 281443Z - 281645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An organization cluster of thunderstorms could intensify
further with increasing potential to produce strong surface gusts
while spreading across middle Texas coastal areas, into the Gulf of
Mexico, by or shortly after 12-1 PM CDT.  Due limited area and
duration of any appreciable potential severe risk, a severe weather
watch is not currently anticipated, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Near the southern periphery of stronger forcing for
ascent, associated with the mid-level low now beginning to turn east
of the Texas South Plains/Edwards Plateau vicinity, an area of more
vigorous convection has shown signs of better organization.  This
appears to include a small lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic vortex
now west of the Victoria area, which is migrating east northeastward
toward the middle Texas coastal plain. 

This clustering of stronger storms appears rooted above convective
outflow advancing into the lower Rio Grande Valley, to its south and
southwest, near its intersection with a weak warm frontal zone
extending into coastal areas near the Palacios vicinity.  Even to
the cool side of this warm front, surface observations indicate at
least a corridor with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70F.  With
increasing insolation during the next couple of hours, inflow of
moderately large mixed-layer CAPE may develop before convection
spreads offshore.

So there appears at least a small window of opportunity for
substantive further intensification and organization of convection
as it propagates across the middle Texas coast through late morning,
in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.  Although lower
tropospheric ambient flow is somewhat modest, this could include the
development of strengthening rear inflow and with potential to
produce damaging surface gusts.

..Kerr/Grams.. 10/28/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29199756 29569638 29299515 28349641 28369792 28789763
            29199756

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2022Every mesoscale discussion in 2022

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.