Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2022

Mesoscale Discussion 1237

June 20, 202213 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 20, 2022, 4:14 PM MDT for 13 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 91 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 20, 2022, 4:14 PM MDT (22:14 UTC)
Expired
Jun 20, 2022, 5:45 PM MDT
In force
91 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 393...395

Counties Bennett County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jackson County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Mellette County, SD, Potter County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD, Todd County, SD

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 161 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 12:00Z on 2022-06-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 7 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 12:00Z on 2022-06-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 21 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
7 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-379 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1196 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
38 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

575 
ACUS11 KWNS 202215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202214 
SDZ000-NEZ000-202345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Areas affected...parts of northwestern Nebraska through central
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393...395...

Valid 202214Z - 202345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393, 395
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify and organize
further while spreading across the central South Dakota Missouri
Valley, including the Pierre vicinity, through 7-9 PM CDT.  This may
be accompanied by increasing potential for strong to locally severe
wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been generally maintaining strength
as they begin to spread northeast of the Black Hills and Nebraska
Panhandle vicinity.  Activity is accompanying forcing for ascent
with a short wave impulse, and an associated mid-level speed maximum
(including 30-50+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer) which is forecast to
nose north-northeastward (near/northwest of Valentine NE) through
much of central South Dakota by 01-02Z.

Although low/mid-level lapse rates within the more moist
post-frontal regime are not particularly steep, profiles are
supportive of moderate CAPE on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg.  Given
the background environment flow and shear, northerly to
northeasterly inflow of this air probably will support further
thunderstorm intensification and organization during the next few
hours.  As this occurs, the risk for strong convective gusts,
including a few exceeding severe limits, seems likely to increase.

..Kerr.. 06/20/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43800173 44860061 45589891 43479973 42200228 43800173

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 19, 6:09 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCButte, Harding, Perkins7 hr
Jun 20, 11:55 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCorson, Dewey, Haakon, Potter, Stanley, Sully and 1 more95 min
Jun 20, 12:15 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBennett, Custer, Fall River, Haakon, Jackson, Meade and 4 more2 hr
Jun 20, 12:37 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBennett, Butte, Custer, Fall River, Haakon, Jackson and 9 more6 hr
Jun 20, 12:49 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Day, Edmunds, McPherson, Marshall, Roberts2 hr
Jun 20, 2:26 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBennett, Jackson2 hr
Jun 20, 2:36 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAurora, Beadle, Brookings, Brown, Brule, Buffalo and 36 more8 hr
Jun 20, 4:59 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBon Homme, Brookings, Deuel, Hanson, Hutchinson, Lake and 3 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2022Every mesoscale discussion in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.