Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2022

Mesoscale Discussion 1

December 31, 202130 counties in Arkansas; 4 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 31, 2021, 9:08 PM CST for 30 counties in Arkansas; 4 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 31, 2021, 9:08 PM CST (03:08 UTC)
Expired
Dec 31, 2021, 11:45 PM CST
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
60%
All 38 counties

Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Cross County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Greene County, AR, Howard County, AR, Independence County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Logan County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Perry County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, Choctaw County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Delta County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Red River County, TX

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 00:00Z, 3.1 hours before the alert went out and 292 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2022-01-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 683 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2022-01-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 178 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
683 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-65 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
934 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
178 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
273 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.8
Supercell composite
2.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 31, 10:35 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClark, Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Garland, Hot Spring and 26 more353 days
Dec 31, 11:57 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Cross, Greene, Mississippi, Poinsett7 hr
Jan 1, 2:07 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCleburne, Craighead, Cross, Greene, Independence, Jackson and 4 more113 min
Jan 1, 11:37 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 5 more113 min
Jan 1, 1:30 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 9 more9 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2022Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2022Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2022Every mesoscale discussion in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.