Special Weather Statement, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
231 PM MDT Thu Aug 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Southerly flow will keep a steady stream of monsoonal
moisture across Utah and southwest Wyoming through early next
week. This will result in a daily threat of showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/06AM Saturday)...Low pressure is spinning
off the Pacific Northwest coast this afternoon as a ridge sits
over Colorado. Between these two features, Utah and southwest
Wyoming finds itself under a persistent southerly flow that is
allowing monsoonal moisture to flow in. As has been the case for
the past few days, showers and thunderstorms are developing over
the higher terrain and will continue to increase in coverage this
afternoon into early this evening. Greatest threat of heavy
rain/flash flooding is primarily over western Utah as that is the
location of the axis of greatest moisture. This is covered well by
the going Flood Watch. Given the areas of cloud cover, maxes
today are running just below seasonal normals.

For tomorrow, the low and the high are expected to shift just
slightly eastward, and so will the axis of deepest moisture over
Utah. Have thus shifted the area highlighted by the Flood Watch
for tomorrow a bit eastward and extended it a bit northward to
include some prone burn scars. With little change in the
temperature, will see maxes tomorrow fairly similar to today.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/06AM Saturday)...An extended wet period is
forecast over the weekend and through much of next week. It will
actually begin to feel a bit like Deja Vu as each day essentially
has the same forecast of terrain-driven scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The cloudy days every
day may prove to be begging for the sun again. That said, a daily
risk for heavy rain, lightning, hail and gusty winds will be a
threat for anyone planning any outdoor activities this weekend and
through at least the first half of the week. It's hard to pick out
if any day will be of any more impact over any other as this weather
pattern simply does not change. There is essentially no upper level
steering flow in this period either as Utah sits right in the heart
of a ridge of high pressure. It will make forecasting exactly where
the strongest storms meander rather difficult to impossible at this
time frame. By the middle to latter half of the week, we start to
see some signals of drying across northern Utah though moisture and
thus thunderstorm chances remain in southern Utah. This trend is
indicated in the latest deterministic forecast model runs but not
quite indicated in all of the ensemble forecasts quite yet. Similar
to precip trend, the temperature forecast is expected to be
relatively similar each day. Just about seasonal temperatures are
expected with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the
state.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions expected for KSLC. Scattered
showers and storms are possible between 00Z and 05Z. When under or
near these storms, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible.
Northerly winds expected to switch to southerly between 03Z and 05Z
and then switch back to northerly around 18Z tomorrow. Precipitation
chances decrease after 05Z and then increase late tomorrow
afternoon.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions expected for
all terminals. Winds are expected to be diurnal for the period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for most of the
CWA. Under these storms, conditions could go to MVFR and winds could
become gusty and erratic. Storms will subside by ~05Z. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms pick back up for most of the CWA tomorrow
early afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Utah remains sandwiched between a low off the
Pacific Northwest coast and a high centered over Colorado. Little
change in this pattern is expected over the next several days,
leaving Utah under a persistent southerly flow, allowing for a
steady stream of monsoonal moisture. Today, the focus of this
moisture will be primarily over western Utah before the area of
greatest moisture and instability shifts eastward into central
Utah for tomorrow. This means a daily threat of showers and
thunderstorms that will produce areas of heavy rain capable of
flash flooding over the next several days.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
     UTZ111-113-116>120-122>129.

     Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ102-115>119-
     122>127.

WY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM...NDeSmet
AVIATION...Cecava

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php

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