Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
403 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A drying trend is expected tomorrow through late week
with shower and thunderstorm chances becoming more confined to the
terrain. Temperatures will remain above normal through the week.
Another monsoonal surge may be on the horizon for next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...High pressure centered just
west of the Four Corners this afternoon will shift east across
Arizona tomorrow into Thursday. While deep moisture remains in place
currently with PWATs between 0.8 to just over 1 inch, the shift in
the high center will cut off the monsoonal moisture tap. That said,
lingering moisture will be slow to clear out of the area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening, with
many producing heavy rain. However, gusty winds will also be a
concern, especially across northwestern portions of Utah where a
somewhat more organized complex of storms currently over northeast
NV will ride an instability axis into northwest Utah. With around
25kt of effective bulk shear, some of these storms could be strong
as they cross the west deserts. These storms are expected to weaken
as they head into the Wasatch Front later this evening, although
gusty outflows will remain a possibility. Otherwise, locally heavy
rain will continue to pose a flash flooding concern to portions of
southern/eastern Utah in sensitive drainages including slot canyons
and burn scars this evening.

Tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms are expected to see decreased
coverage owing to the drying trend. However, scattered thunderstorms
are still expected to develop over mainly the higher terrain and
track into the adjacent valleys to the east. There remains a
potential for flash flooding in sensitive areas.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...High pressure will be centered
over Arizona Thursday and Friday before slowly migrating further
east as the period progresses. This will result in drier conditions
across the CWA as a drier westerly flow develops. Additionally, very
hot conditions, particularly across southern Utah, will plague the
region through Friday before a cooling trend begins as southerly
flow advects higher moisture content back into the southern portion
of the CWA.

As the ridge translates further east a low amplitude trough is
expected to move across the northern Intermountain West and bring
slight cooling aloft over northern Utah which will mix to the
surface in the form of temperatures several degrees cooler by the
weekend/early next week. Clusters depict fairly good agreement
amongst ensemble members of a ridge developing across the PNW that
would keep moisture limited to southern Utah.

Overall, temperatures will be 5-8 degrees above climo Thursday and
Friday across most of the CWA before trending down to near normal by
early next week. Dry weather will persist for most of the period for
northern portions of the CWA, whereas dry conditions across southern
Utah will trend slightly wetter, particularly in the higher terrain,
through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Expect VFR conditions to persist for the entirety
of the period at the KSLC terminal. A few TCU above 9kft will be
positioned mainly in the mountains around the terminal. Scattered
convection will likely stay south of the terminal throughout the
day, however storm development in western Utah could migrate into
the area after ~03Z in the form of decaying storms with gusty
outflow. This threat should dissipate by ~06Z leaving mostly clear
skies and light diurnal winds. A very similar day is expected again
tomorrow.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Afternoon convection will
mainly impact the west desert and central/southern Utah. CIGs will
generally remain above 9kft. Locations of particular interest are
KENV, KPVU, and KBCE as storms are currently threatening those
terminals. Expect TCU development throughout the evening with storm
motion to the east/northeast. These storms will be associated with
gusty outflow winds, especially near sunset as storms begin to die
off and produce outflow winds that will surge far out ahead of the
storms. A relatively quiet evening will setup at ~06Z before another
similar day expected tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will be in place over the area through
at least the weekend, maintaining hot temperatures. With the center
of the center shifting west over Arizona, moisture will decrease a
bit tomorrow through the middle of the week. While isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible during this
time, thunderstorm coverage and precipitation amounts will trend
downward. As the high center shifts back towards the Four Corners
area for the weekend, southwest winds will increase somewhat Friday
and Saturday. Both of these days will offer up the potential for
marginal or isolated critical fire weather conditions. By Sunday and
into the early part of next week, moisture is expected to increase
from the south once again.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     evening for UTZ123-128-131.

WY...None.
&&

Cheng/Mahan

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php

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