Wind Advisory 3, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1222 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 939 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

With development of a low-level jet and a tight surface
pressure gradient remaining, southeast to south winds will
remain gusty tonight. With increasing cloud cover overnight,
temperatures will not drop off that much, and have increased
the lows by a few degrees. Also, see Fire Weather section
for an update to current headline products.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

Monday night the strong low pressure system will push northeastward
and drag a cold front out of the Panhandle into west Texas. A few
showers are possible in the far northern Big Country late Monday
night into first thing Tuesday morning, but these will be short-
lived.  For the rest of Tuesday and through Wednesday temperatures
will be cooler with winds shifting out of the northwest at 15-20 MPH
despite sunny skies. Towards the end of the week, southerly return
flow is expected, so temperatures look to warm back into the 70s.
Over the weekend, a weak backdoor cold front will move into central
Texas, but it looks like this won't lower temperatures by much, if
anything and no precipitation is expected either.  Looking ahead to
early next week, global models show an upper-level ridge building in
from the Desert Southwest, which indicates a continued warm and dry
pattern likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Stratus will overspread the area this morning, resulting in
MVFR/IFR ceilings. Expect VFR ceilings to return to all sites by
late morning or early afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible from mid morning through early
afternoon, mainly at KABI. Gusty south winds of 15 to 20 knots
overnight, will become southwest at 15 to 25 knots, with higher
gusts this afternoon. Expect winds to quickly decrease this
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

The Red Flag Warning (which was in effect until 9 PM
for all of West Central Texas) has been allowed to
expire, with relative humidity values expected to climb
quickly overnight.

The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning for Monday (Noon to 8 PM). This encompasses the
western half into southeastern parts of West Central Texas.

For Monday, low level moisture will be in place across the area
during the morning. A dryline will move east across the area
during the afternoon. The best potential for critical fire weather
conditions will be across the western half into southeastern parts
of West Central Texas. The time frame will be Monday afternoon
and evening (Noon to 8 PM). Looks like RH values will be less 20
percent along with gusty southwest to west winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 73  41  56  37 /  80  20  10   0
San Angelo 	 78  42  61  36 /  60   5   5   0
Junction 	 78  42  63  35 /  60  10   0   0
Brownwood 	 74  42  58  36 /  90  20   5   0
Sweetwater 	 74  40  57  39 /  60  20  10   0
Ozona      	 76  42  61  36 /  30   5   0   0
Brady      	 75  43  59  38 /  80  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
Coke-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Irion-Kimble-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-
Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Tom Green.

&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...Daniels

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1016 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-220330-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
1016 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday, mainly east
of a Sweetwater, to San Angelo, to Sonora line. The main hazards
will be large hail, damaging winds, and dangerous lightning,
although a tornado is also possible.

Critical fire weather conditions are possible for at least the
western and southern portions of West Central Texas on Monday
afternoon as a dryline moves into the area and brings gusty
southwest to west winds. The Fire Weather Watch has been
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Monday afternoon and
evening, and encompasses the area and counties along and west
of a Rotan to Robert Lee to Ballinger to Junction line.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed Monday afternoon for potential
severe thunderstorms.