Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
610 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

The main concern through the next 24 hours is the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms overnight. A dryline is forecast to
advance to just west of our forecast area by mid to late afternoon.
An upper level trough that is currently across the Desert Southwest
will approach West Central Texas this evening, resulting in an
increase in large scale ascent. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will
overtake the dryline by mid to late evening. As the front overtakes
the dryline and better lift moves in with the approach of the
aforementioned trough, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop across our western counties between 8 PM and 9PM. Initially,
supercells will be possible, with storms quickly becoming linear and
most likely forming a QLCS. These storms will track across the
region late this evening into early Wednesday morning, with most of
the convection moving east of the area by 5 AM. The main concern
with these storms will be damaging winds, although large hail
(especially early) and a tornado are also possible. Rainfall totals
will not be very high, given the fast movement of the convection,
but at this point any rainfall is welcome. Expect rainfall totals of
1/4 to 1/2 half inch, with localized higher amounts, and some
locations (especially our far western and southern counties) only
seeing one to two tenths.

Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s across the
region. West winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph, with higher gusts,
around sunrise. Winds Wednesday afternoon will become northwest and
decrease a bit to 15 to 20 mph. Cooler temperatures are anticipated
on Wednesday with highs in the mid 60s to near 70 across the
northern half of the area, to the low to mid 70s across the southern
half of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Looks like mainly dry and warm conditions late this week into this
weekend. Highs will be in the upper 70s and 80s. The next upper
level through and surface low is due in early next week. Will
probably see low level moisture return along with weak to locally
moderate instability. Going with slight chance to chance Pops across
much of the area Monday afternoon through Tuesday. The severe
weather threat looks low at this time, but keep up with the latest
weather information as this may change early next week.
Temperatures will remain warm.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Gusty south or south-southeast winds will continue this evening.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening to the west of
the Big Country and just west of the Concho Valley. This
convection is expected to organize into a line of thunderstorms,
and move east across our area between 02Z and 08Z. Strong, gusty
winds will be possible with the storms, and brief reductions in
visibilities and ceilings are anticipated. Following passage of a
Pacific front, gusty southwest to west winds will occur overnight.
On Wednesday, west winds will shift to the northwest in the
morning with passage of a secondary cold front. Winds will remain
gusty through early afternoon, before subsiding in the late
afternoon/early evening. A band of clouds with ceilings around
4000 ft will pivot southeast across much of the Big Country during
the day Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

A Red Flag Warning continues across the western Concho Valley and
Big Country, along with Crockett County, until 7 PM. A Pacific cold
front will move through the area this evening into Wednesday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front. A
few of these storms may become strong to severe. On Wednesday,
elevated fire weather conditions are possible across much of the
area. Minimum RH values will drop to 20 to 25 percent. Expect gusty
west winds of 15 to 25 mph in the morning, with winds becoming
northwest and decreasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon, when the
lowest RH values are reached. On Thursday, minimum RH values will
drop to 15 to 20 percent, while 20 foot north winds generally remain
below 12 mph. On Friday, elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions are possible across much of the region as minimum RH
values drop to 15 to 20 percent and 20 foot south winds increase to
12 to 20 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     53  67  42  70 /  80   0   0   0
San Angelo  54  73  44  73 /  80   0   0   0
Junction    53  78  43  78 /  60   0   0   0
Brownwood   52  70  41  71 /  90   0   0   0
Sweetwater  53  68  44  70 /  50   0  10   0
Ozona       54  74  46  74 /  60   0   0   0
Brady       54  72  44  72 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coke-Crockett-
Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Nolan-Sterling-Tom Green.

&&

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...19
FIRE WEATHER...Daniels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
232 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-301945-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
232 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Very dry conditions will combine with gusty south winds this
afternoon, resulting in critical fire weather conditions across
the western Concho Valley and Big Country, along with Crockett
County. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for this area through 7
PM this evening.

A cold front and upper level storm system will generate strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms across West Central Texas tonight.
The main risk area is north and east of a Rotan to Sterling City
to Sonora line. The main hazards are large hail, damaging winds,
and dangerous lightning. An isolated tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
across the southern half of the area Wednesday afternoon, as gusty
west to northwest winds combine with very dry air.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

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