Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
131 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...Severe Weather Outbreak Possible This Afternoon and Evening...

The latest mesoanalysis indicates an outflow boundary along a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. A dryline was located west of our area
in the Trans Pecos. The warm sector was located across the
southern half of the area with SBCAPES of 1500 to 2000 J/kg,
locally 2500 J/kg. The effective shear is strong, 35 to 45 knots.

The Hi-Res models indicates initial storms will be supercells
developing, mainly across the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards
Plateau late this afternoon and early evening. These storms may
produce very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
Then a QLCS system will move east-southeast across much of the
area this evening and exiting the southern part of the area by
midnight. The main hazards will be damaging winds and hail with
these storms. Also, localized flash flooding is possible due to
heavy rainfall and possible training of storms. Look for isolated
to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms after midnight and
then a dry forecast for Wednesday. Look for nice weather on
Wednesday with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

By Wednesday night, showers and storms will be along the TX
coast, and our area will be under the influence of northwest flow
aloft, resulting in drying and clearing conditions. With clear
skies, dry air, and light winds, lows will be able to drop into
the lower 50s to around 60 degrees, well below normal values.

A warm-up is still anticipated from Thursday through the weekend,
as upper level ridging and the low level thermal ridge move back
into the area. By Saturday, triple digit heat is expected at most
locations north of an Ozona to San Saba line. Winds are also
expected to pick up out of the southwest from Saturday through the
first half of next week, resulting in increased fire weather
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms from mid afternoon
through midnight. The conditions are favorable based on
instability and vertical wind shear that some storms may be
severe. Going with the most aggressive for the KSJT/KABI
terminals with TEMPO wind gusts to 40 knots in TSRA early this
evening. Otherwise have VCTS at the remaining terminals. A cold
front will move through this evening with north winds expected
behind the front. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR for the next 24
hours. However, some patchy low clouds are possible for a few
hours Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     54  77  52  88 /  60   0   0   0
San Angelo  55  81  53  92 /  60   0   0   0
Junction    59  80  54  91 /  70  10   0   0
Brownwood   56  78  52  88 /  80   0   0   0
Sweetwater  52  78  55  90 /  40   0   0   0
Ozona       57  80  56  89 /  60   0   0   0
Brady       58  78  54  89 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
120 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-251830-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
120 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible across all of West Central Texas
this afternoon and overnight. The main hazards will be very large
hail and damaging winds, although isolated tornadoes are also
possible. In addition, heavy rainfall may result in localized
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

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