Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
641 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...Severe Weather Outbreak Possible This Afternoon and Evening...

The latest mesoanalysis indicates an outflow boundary along a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. A dryline was located west of our area
in the Trans Pecos. The warm sector was located across the
southern half of the area with SBCAPES of 1500 to 2000 J/kg,
locally 2500 J/kg. The effective shear is strong, 35 to 45 knots.

The Hi-Res models indicates initial storms will be supercells
developing, mainly across the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards
Plateau late this afternoon and early evening. These storms may
produce very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
Then a QLCS system will move east-southeast across much of the
area this evening and exiting the southern part of the area by
midnight. The main hazards will be damaging winds and hail with
these storms. Also, localized flash flooding is possible due to
heavy rainfall and possible training of storms. Look for isolated
to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms after midnight and
then a dry forecast for Wednesday. Look for nice weather on
Wednesday with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

By Wednesday night, showers and storms will be along the TX
coast, and our area will be under the influence of northwest flow
aloft, resulting in drying and clearing conditions. With clear
skies, dry air, and light winds, lows will be able to drop into
the lower 50s to around 60 degrees, well below normal values.

A warm-up is still anticipated from Thursday through the weekend,
as upper level ridging and the low level thermal ridge move back
into the area. By Saturday, triple digit heat is expected at most
locations north of an Ozona to San Saba line. Winds are also
expected to pick up out of the southwest from Saturday through the
first half of next week, resulting in increased fire weather
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

A band of strong to severe thunderstorms, extending from Brownwood
to Sonora at 625 PM, will move east across the southeastern part
of our area this evening. Another area of showers and storms is
approaching the western Big Country and northwestern Concho
Valley, from West Texas. This area of convection will move east-
southeast across our area between 630 PM and Midnight. Our TAF
sites will have ceiling and visibility reductions in the heavy
rain accompanying the showers and storms. The stronger storms
will have a threat for hail and strong, gusty winds.

Skies will be clearing tonight, once the showers and storms exit
the area. Patchy low cloud development is expected late tonight
over mainly the Big Country, with bases and ceilings 2000-2500 ft.
This should occasinally affect the KABI TAF site.

Mostly sunny skies and VFR conditions are expected during the day
Wednesday, with somewhat gusty north-northwest winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     54  77  52  88 /  60   0   0   0
San Angelo  55  81  53  92 /  60   0   0   0
Junction    59  80  54  91 /  70  10   0   0
Brownwood   56  78  52  88 /  80   0   0   0
Sweetwater  52  78  55  90 /  40   0   0   0
Ozona       57  80  56  89 /  60   0   0   0
Brady       58  78  54  89 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
120 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-251830-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
120 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible across all of West Central Texas
this afternoon and overnight. The main hazards will be very large
hail and damaging winds, although isolated tornadoes are also
possible. In addition, heavy rainfall may result in localized
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
613 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE WINCHELL          31.49N 99.15W
05/24/2022                   BROWN              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THREE POWER POLES WERE BLOWN DOWN AND THREE
            POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED.

&&

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
623 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXZ077-078-250015-
Schleicher TX-Sutton TX-
623 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Schleicher and northwestern Sutton Counties through 715 PM CDT...

At 623 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sonora, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sonora, Eldorado, The Intersection Of I-10 And Ranch Road 1989, Us-
277 Near The Sutton-
Schleicher County Line and The Intersection Of Ranch Road 2596 And
Ranch Road 864.

This includes Interstate 10 between Mile Markers 390 and 409.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3047 10066 3061 10082 3099 10052 3073 10013
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 230DEG 38KT 3060 10067

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AJW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
625 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             4 SSE BROWNWOOD         31.66N 98.96W
05/24/2022  E1.00 INCH       BROWN              TX   PUBLIC

            TREES ALSO BLOWN DOWN, AND FLOODING INTO A
            GARAGE.

&&

SN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
633 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             ZEPHYR                  31.68N 98.80W
05/24/2022  E1.00 INCH       BROWN              TX   PUBLIC

&&

SN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
642 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROCHELLE                31.23N 99.21W
05/24/2022  M67 MPH          MCCULLOCH          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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