Wind Advisory 4, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
723 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

.AVIATION...

For the 22/00Z TAF update...Low cigs will return across the region
overnight, resulting in reduced flight categories. Can't rule out
some -SHRA/-TSRA near daybreak as a disturbance moves along the
flow near the region, and again towards the end of the TAF period
as a cold front moves across the area. Otherwise, expect gusty
conditions to continue, with south/southwest winds above 10kts
(gusting near 20 kts.) at all terminals through the period. Winds
to become WNW in wake of the frontal passage. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/

Active weather continues across the Ark-La-Tex through the next
36 hours, with chances of precipitation and a slight risk for
severe weather preceding frontal passage by the end of Tuesday
night. Until then, warm sector conditions including cloud cover
and robust low-level southerly flow will maintain temperatures in
the upper-60s overnight. High-resolution guidance indicates
convection developing upstream by the evening in north Texas that
quickly propagates northeast ahead of the frontal boundary into
our far northern zones. That fast movement, combined with lift and
moist low-level southerly flow, will create an environment for
thunderstorms with damaging winds as the predominant hazard across
McCurtain County into southwest Arkansas overnight. The frontal
boundary across the Great Plains will continue southward,
approaching the Ouachita Mountains by daybreak on Tuesday. Mid-
level southwesterly flow at 50-70 knots will maintain an
overrunning environment for any showers and thunderstorms that do
develop to keep shifting northeast through the day as the front
nearly bisects the county warning area just after dusk on Tuesday.
Cloud cover and warm sector conditions will keep Tuesday maximum
temperatures moderated into the upper 70s once again.

By Tuesday night, the frontal boundary will cross the I-20
corridor, reaching our southernmost zones and ushering in minimum
temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to the upper 50s.
Precipitation will gradually taper off behind the front in our
western zones with northwesterly winds and the 60-degree
isodrosotherm retreating back into our southern zones. /16/

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday Night/

At the start of the long term period, a broad and deep upper trough
will be digging south across the Great Basin. Strong southwesterly
flow aloft will stream a rich plume of deep layer moisture over the
region. We're going to find ourselves under a zone of strong large
scale ascent ahead of the upper trough for a rather prolonged period
of time. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front should be near or
just south of the forecast area. This front may wobble back
northward a bit during the day Wednesday, and especially Thursday,
setting the stage for quite a large temperature gradient. Daytime
highs with likely struggle to climb into the low 40s in Southeast
Oklahoma and extreme Northeast Texas. Meanwhile, temperatures will
likely climb into the 70s, in our far southern counties and
parishes. In fact, portions of North Central Louisiana could warm to
near 80 degrees F Thursday afternoon.

First, the good news. A broad zone of strong isentropic upglide will
develop behind the surface front, but ahead of the 850 and 700 hPa
fronts, which will still be well to the northwest in Oklahoma. This
will combine with the strengthening ascent from the Great Basin
trough to produce a large area of precip across the entire forecast
area Wednesday through Friday. Through Thursday afternoon, with one
exception, more on that below, this will be in the form of much
needed liquid rain from showers and a few embedded thunderstorms.
Severe storms are not expected.

Now, for the bad news. Even though the airmass behind this first
front will be shallow and cold air damming will occur due to
Ouachita Mountains, it should get cold enough Wednesday morning for
freezing rain and sleet to occur in northwestern McCurtain County,
possible far northwestern Red River County also. Temperatures in
these areas will struggle to warm, especially given the cold nature
of the precip. However, the precip may bring enough air from the
elevated warm nose down to the surface to warm surface temperatures
enough for the precip to transition back to all liquid rain
Wednesday afternoon. However, given really strong precip rates, ice
accumulations up to one tenth of an inch cannot be ruled out in
McCurtain County.

Thursday afternoon, this first upper trough will be ejecting
northeast across the Plains and towards the Great Lakes. This will
help to push a stronger cold front rapidly across the area finally
heralding the arrival of a deep Arctic airmass. This should result
in a transition of precip types to a mixed back of freezing rain,
sleet, and snow from northwest to southeast across the area Thursday
evening through noon Friday. Despite the rather prolonged chances of
wintry precip during this period, this will also occur as the precip
is exiting and diminishing. In fact, enough dry air advection may
occur to greatly limit PoPs in the coldest air at this time.
However, there is enough of a chance for mixed precip to include it
in the forecast. Details are too uncertain regarding any specifics
surrounding accumulations late Thursday through Friday, but they
should be light.

After a break in the precip chances late Friday, another shortwave
trough moving from the Rockies across Kansas and Northern Oklahoma
will bring more precip to the area while we remain in a cold
airmass, with cold surface temperatures Saturday morning and again
Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Unfortunately, this will
result in more chances for wintry precip across most of the forecast
area. There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding this portion of
the forecast, but at this time, any accumulations appear to be very
light. Dry weather should finally return to the area for the start
of the following work week.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  78  52  60 /  30  40  30  80
MLU  66  80  53  62 /  20  60  60  70
DEQ  61  78  36  45 /  80  70   0  80
TXK  66  78  44  50 /  60  70  10  80
ELD  63  76  45  51 /  50  60  40  60
TYR  66  80  46  49 /  40  40  10  80
GGG  66  80  49  55 /  30  50  20  80
LFK  65  79  59  70 /  10  30  10  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
858 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

ARZ060-061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-230300-
Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-
Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-
Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Bowie-
Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-
Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-
San Augustine-
858 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms may be possible across portions of east
Texas into Northwest Louisiana and south-central Arkansas
overnight. Gusty winds and small hail will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Thunderstorms will spread east across the region Tuesday, ahead
of a cold front that will shift southeast into the area during the
afternoon. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can not be
ruled out Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday evening over
Southwest Arkansas and North Louisiana. Damaging winds and large
hail will be the primary threats.

Additional thunderstorms will develop and gradually spread east
southeast across the region Wednesday and Thursday, but severe
thunderstorms are not anticipated. Ice accumulations less than one
tenth of an inch are possible.

More chances for wintry precipitation are possible across much of
the area Thursday night and into Friday morning as far southeast
as a line from Toledo Bend Dam to Monroe.

After a brief break late Friday, chances for rain, snow, and
freezing rain will once again be possible across much of the area
Saturday and into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters may be be needed tonight for
portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and
Southwest Arkansas.

ARZ050-051-059-OKZ077-TXZ096-230300-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-McCurtain-Red River-
858 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this morning
through the overnight hours across portions of Southeast Oklahoma
and adjacent portions of extreme southwest Arkansas and extreme
northeast Texas. Damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated
tornado possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Thunderstorms will spread east across the region Tuesday, ahead
of a cold front that will shift southeast into the area during the
afternoon. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can not be
ruled out Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday evening over
Southwest Arkansas and North Louisiana. Damaging winds and large
hail will be the primary threats.

Additional thunderstorms will develop and gradually spread east
southeast across the region Wednesday and Thursday, but severe
thunderstorms are not anticipated. Ice accumulations less than one
tenth of an inch are possible.

More chances for wintry precipitation are possible across much of
the area Thursday night and into Friday morning as far southeast
as a line from Toledo Bend Dam to Monroe.

After a brief break late Friday, chances for rain, snow, and
freezing rain will once again be possible across much of the area
Saturday and into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters may be be needed tonight for
portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and
Southwest Arkansas.